Is It Time To Reassess Bilibili (BILI) After Its Strong One Year Share Price Rally

Simply Wall St.

Jan 21

If you are trying to figure out whether Bilibili is attractively priced today, the key question is whether the recent share price reflects its underlying fundamentals or leaves room for value. ...

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Bilibili last closed at US$30.27, with a 7 day return of 3.6% decline, a 30 day return of 22.2% and a 1 year return of 77.5%, which sits alongside a 3 year return of 18.1% and a 5 year return of 76.0% decline. These moves sit against ongoing investor focus on Chinese tech and media names, where risk appetite has shifted quickly between growth stories and balance sheet strength. For Bilibili, recent headlines have mostly centered on its position within the broader China internet sector, policy sentiment around online platforms and how investors are weighing platform engagement against long term profitability. On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Bilibili scores 1 out of 6 for being potentially undervalued. You can see this in detail through its valuation score of 1. Next, we will look at what different valuation methods say about that number before finishing with a way to think about value that goes beyond any single model.  Bilibili scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Bilibili Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash Bilibili could generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today, aiming to translate all those future CN¥ cash flows into a single present value per share. For Bilibili, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow (FCF) is reported at roughly CN¥4.7b. Analysts have provided FCF estimates out to 2028, with Simply Wall St extending those projections further using its 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. For example, the CN¥6,067.9m FCF estimate for 2028 is one of the anchor points in this cash flow curve, and values for 2029 to 2035 are extrapolated from there. When all those projected CN¥ cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$37.48 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$30.27, this suggests Bilibili is trading at roughly a 19.2% discount to that DCF estimate, which is treated here as a potential margin between price and modelled value. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bilibili is undervalued by 19.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 874 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows. BILI Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bilibili. Approach 2: Bilibili Price vs Earnings For companies that are generating profits, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you are paying today to the earnings that business is producing. It gives you a quick sense of how many dollars investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E ratio often depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how much risk investors see in those earnings. Higher growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tends to support a lower one. Bilibili currently trades on a P/E of 113.46x. That compares with an Interactive Media and Services industry average P/E of 15.55x and a peer group average of 22.64x. Simply Wall St also provides a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 35.29x for Bilibili, which is the P/E level it would expect given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks. This Fair Ratio can be more useful than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for those company specific features rather than assuming all firms deserve similar multiples. With the current P/E of 113.46x sitting well above the Fair Ratio of 35.29x, Bilibili screens as expensive on this measure. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqGS:BILI P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1444 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bilibili Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way for you to put a clear story behind the numbers such as your fair value, revenue, earnings and margin assumptions. A Narrative connects three parts of your thinking: what you believe about Bilibili’s business, how that belief translates into a financial forecast, and the fair value that results from those assumptions. You can build and explore Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share their views. The platform compares each Narrative’s Fair Value to the current market price to help you decide whether a stock looks appealing, fairly priced or expensive based on your own assumptions. Narratives also refresh when new information such as earnings releases or news is added to the platform. This helps your story and fair value estimates stay aligned with the latest data rather than a static one-off model. For Bilibili, one investor might set a very optimistic Fair Value with higher future margins, while another might use more cautious revenue forecasts and arrive at a much lower Fair Value. Yet both are using the same tool to make clearer decisions. Do you think there's more to the story for Bilibili? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:BILI 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Bilibili might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}