金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，12月，“以旧换新”补贴效用退坡使得商品零售额（10-11月/12月：同比+1.9%/+0.7%）、实物商品网上零售额（10-11月/12月：同比+3.0%/+0.5%）增速均放缓。快递件量层面，电商经营成本增加、国补高基数与暖冬使得件量同比增速放缓（10-11月/12月：+6.4%/+2.6%）；价格同比降幅缩窄（10-11月/12月：-5.8%/-1.0%）、反季节性环比上涨0.12元，主因反内卷提振效应仍在、去年同期激烈价格竞争导致低基数。往后展望，持续推荐海外业务增速快、空间广的快递企业；左侧布局件量结构调优的综合物流龙头；中长期看好现金流充沛、成本与份额有优势的快递企业。
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