By Mauro Orru

ASML Holding is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know:

ORDERS FORECAST: The Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker is expected to report orders of 6.95 billion euros ($8.25 billion), according to Visible Alpha. The forecast is slightly below orders of 7.09 billion euros that ASML reported a year earlier.

ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography systems--used to print the most intricate layers on chips--should contribute 4.41 billion euros in orders.

This marks the last time that ASML is disclosing quarterly orders. The metric has long been investors' go-to figure to gauge the company's performance, but ASML executives have argued that bookings aren't an accurate reflection of business momentum as they can be lumpy between quarters. From now on, ASML will report its total backlog on an annual basis.

SALES FORECAST: ASML should post quarterly sales of 9.59 billion euros, according to the consensus, above the 9.26 billion-euro figure from a year earlier and within a company guidance range between 9.2 billion euros and 9.8 billion euros.

GROSS PROFIT FORECAST: Gross profit--a closely watched metric for companies operating in the semiconductor industry--should come in at 4.98 billion euros, according to the consensus, above 4.79 billion euros that ASML reported a year earlier. ASML's gross margin is expected to have edged up to 52% from 51.7%, within company guidance between 51% and 53%.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: Net profit should amount to 2.94 billion euros compared to 2.69 billion euros a year earlier.

ASML shares are up more than 25% since the year began. Earlier this month, record spending plans from client Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. boosted ASML's stock, lifting the group's market value to more than $500 billion for the first time and further cementing its position as Europe's largest listed company.

-- GUIDANCE: ASML will likely issue robust sales guidance for the year, UBS analysts wrote in a note to clients. They expect the company to guide for 5% to 10% growth on year. The projected range would show that ASML is now much more sanguine about its prospects than it was a few months ago. The group spooked markets when it said in July ahead of a trade deal between the European Union and the U.S. that it couldn't guarantee growth in 2026 because of tariff-related uncertainty. Executives then backtracked in October, when they said that 2026 sales shouldn't be below the 2025 figure.

-- DEMAND: ASML stands to benefit from TSMC's higher-than-expected spending commitments this year, Bank of America's Didier Scemama wrote in a research note. Earlier this month, TSMC said it planned $52 billion to $56 billion in capital expenditure this year, 27% to 37% higher than a year earlier. ASML investors have welcomed TSMC's announcement as higher spending from a client of its stature raises expectations that the company will need to purchase more of ASML's semiconductor-making machines to satisfy demand from its own customers, including Nvidia and Apple.

Write to Mauro Orru at mauro.orru@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 26, 2026 07:45 ET (12:45 GMT)

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