Assessing PACCAR (PCAR) Valuation After Renewed Analyst Support And Softer Business Trends

Simply Wall St.

Jan 26

AdvertisementWhy PACCAR’s leadership and analyst attention matter right now PACCAR (PCAR) is back in focus after major research firms reiterated constructive views on the truck maker, even as recent ...

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For you as a shareholder or potential buyer, that split picture raises a practical question: how do upbeat external views square with concerns about the core business, and what might that mix mean for risk and return? See our latest analysis for PACCAR. At a share price of $122.0, PACCAR has pulled back slightly in the last day but still shows strong momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 9.13% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 13.91%, building on a 5 year total shareholder return of 141.75%. Investors are weighing weaker organic trends alongside recent executive retirement news and renewed analyst interest. If PACCAR’s gains have you thinking about what else is moving in autos, this could be a useful moment to scan auto manufacturers and see what other manufacturers look interesting. With PACCAR trading near recent highs, analyst targets not far below and an internal model suggesting roughly a 20% intrinsic discount, investors may need to consider whether there is still a buying opportunity or if potential future growth is already reflected in the share price. Most Popular Narrative: 9.5% Overvalued Compared with PACCAR’s last close at $122.0, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $111.44, built using a 9.02% discount rate and long term assumptions about growth and profitability. Ongoing investments in next-gen clean diesel, alternative powertrains, and connected vehicle services position PACCAR to capture future growth as fleets transition towards more efficient and zero-emission vehicles, supporting long-term top line and margin expansion. Rising adoption of digital fleet management and over-the-air telematics, combined with PACCAR's strengthening financial services and used truck business, is expected to increase customer lifetime value and support higher margin, recurring revenue, positively impacting future profitability. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue path and margin profile need to line up to support that valuation gap? The core narrative leans heavily on steadier earnings and richer profit per truck rather than rapid headline growth. Curious which long range earnings and valuation multiple assumptions hold the whole model together? The full story sets those numbers out in detail. Result: Fair Value of $111.44 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, those assumptions could be challenged if tariff costs remain more painful than expected or if truck demand softens further, keeping margins under pressure. Find out about the key risks to this PACCAR narrative. Another Way To Look At PACCAR’s Value While the popular narrative flags PACCAR as about 9.5% overvalued at $122.0, the SWS DCF model points the other way, with a fair value estimate of $153.23. That 20.4% gap suggests the market could be underpricing future cash flows. Which signal do you trust more? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. PCAR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own PACCAR Narrative If you look at these assumptions and feel they do not quite fit your view, you can stress test the numbers yourself and shape a custom narrative in just a few minutes, then Do it your way. A great starting point for your PACCAR research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If PACCAR is already on your radar, do not stop there, you could be leaving other compelling opportunities on the table if you do not widen your search.  Spot early stage potential by scanning these 3523 penny stocks with strong financials that pair smaller market caps with financial profiles many investors have not reviewed closely yet. Follow powerful tech trends by checking out these 23 AI penny stocks that link artificial intelligence themes with companies already listed and ready for deeper research. Hunt for pricing gaps by reviewing these 874 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that screen for shares where current prices sit below estimated cash flow based value.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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