【券商聚焦】中信证券:2026年春节白酒实际动销有望维持平稳 无须过度悲观

金吾财讯
Jan 28

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,25Q4内地基金重仓股酒类持仓比例6.25%/环比-0.64ppts,食品饮料板块持仓比例7.00%/-0.54ppts,北上资金持仓比例3.93%/环比-0.66ppts。该机构认为2026年来,行业发生了较多大事件和变化,推动白酒行业渠道升级和突破。短期,该机构观察到白酒龙头企业开始积极拥抱消费者,消费者触达和消费者教育工作热度空前;中部企业适当降价,维持市场量价平衡;尾部企业停产、出清库存。长期,“以消费者为核心”的渠道协同体系料将成为行业下轮周期中核心竞争力,需要企业逐步提升拓客能力、服务能力和场景运营能力。新一轮市场培育下,行业整体有望受益于本轮新消费者获取和消费者教育提升效果。该机构认为2026年啤酒行业将在底部位置温和复苏,行业整体呈现量稳价增的趋势,建议关注结构升级战略执行坚定、渠道控制力强、具备品牌溢价能力的行业龙头。该机构续指,白酒行业即将迎来春节旺季营销活动,渠道在经销商大会后持续学习吸收龙头企业的渠道、产品等多维度改革经验。该机构认为,行业或在新改革和新方向下重新聚焦市场培育和消费者教育,促进开瓶动销并为经销商减负。综合考虑到动销已逐步平稳、2026年春节假期多一天、白酒春节消费场景等诸多因素,该机构判断2026年春节白酒实际动销有望维持平稳,无须过度悲观。再考虑到后续逐步复苏趋势明确,看好白酒行业底部配置机会。预计2026年啤酒行业将在底部位置温和复苏,建议关注渠道控制力强、具备品牌溢价能力的行业龙头。

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