瑞银展望2026美国经济:一旦AI泡沫破裂衰退概率将达50%,市场低估了6月前降息的可能性

华尔街见闻
Jan 26

瑞银认为,美国经济的“韧性”表面之下,实际上是由单一驱动力——人工智能——苦苦支撑的脆弱平衡。据追风交易台,瑞银在1月23日的报告中指出,尽管总体经济数据看似强劲,但增长来源极其狭窄。除AI和科技板块外,大部分实体经济处于疲软甚至收缩状态。劳动力市场的扩张已经显著放缓,除去医疗保健行业的“繁荣”,就业实际上是在萎缩。对投资者而言,这意味着市场的定价逻辑存在偏差。美联储(FOMC)正处于两难境地:...

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