A Look At Kingsgate Consolidated’s Valuation After Consistent Chatree Production Results

Simply Wall St.

Jan 24

AdvertisementOperating update and why it matters for Kingsgate Consolidated shares Kingsgate Consolidated (ASX:KCN) has drawn fresh attention after releasing December 2025 quarter and first half ...

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The latest A$6.83 price follows a 30 day share price return of 21.53% and a...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4115":"综合电信业务","CNSL":"联合通讯","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","KCN.AU":"KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LTD","BK7104":"黄金"},"translate_title":"在Chatree生产结果一致后看看Kingsgate Consolidated的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CNSL":1.5,"KCN.AU":1,"DCF":1},"content_text":"AdvertisementOperating update and why it matters for Kingsgate Consolidated shares Kingsgate Consolidated (ASX:KCN) has drawn fresh attention after releasing December 2025 quarter and first half fiscal 2026 production results, with the Chatree mine again delivering more than 20,000 ounces of gold. See our latest analysis for Kingsgate Consolidated. The production update comes after a strong run in Kingsgate Consolidated’s shares. The latest A$6.83 price follows a 30 day share price return of 21.53% and a 1 year total shareholder return that is very large, suggesting momentum has been building rather than fading over both shorter and longer periods. If this kind of move in a single gold producer has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the share price up sharply and the stock trading only about 10% below its A$7.50 price target, along with a very large 1 year return, you have to ask: is Kingsgate still mispriced, or is the market already banking on more growth? Price-to-Earnings of 62x: Is it justified? On traditional metrics, Kingsgate Consolidated screens as expensive, with a P/E of 62x at the A$6.83 share price compared with 25.8x for the Australian Metals and Mining industry and 40.9x for its peer group. That premium, together with the recent share price run, suggests the market is already paying up for what it expects Kingsgate to deliver in the years ahead. The P/E ratio compares what investors are paying today for each dollar of current earnings. For a single asset gold producer like Kingsgate, a higher than average P/E often reflects expectations around production stability, potential mine life extensions or stronger forecast earnings growth rather than the current profit base alone. Here, the earnings forecasts help explain part of that gap. Earnings are forecast to grow 42.97% per year and are expected to grow faster than the broader Australian market. Forecast revenue growth of 20.5% per year, ahead of the market, and a projected return on equity of 25.7% in three years sit alongside the view that the stock is trading at 79.8% below an estimated future cash flow value of A$33.85. Against the industry, however, a 62x P/E is more than double the estimated fair P/E of 34.1x. This is a level the market could move towards if expectations become more restrained. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Kingsgate Consolidated Result: Price-to-Earnings of 62x (OVERVALUED) At the same time, the Simply Wall St DCF model points in a different direction, with a fair value estimate of A$33.85 per share versus the current A$6.83 price. This implies Kingsgate is trading well below that cash flow based estimate even after its strong 1 year total shareholder return. Our DCF model projects future cash flows from the business and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, aiming to reflect the present value of those future streams. For a producer like Kingsgate, that means the output is sensitive to assumptions about production volumes, future gold prices, costs and how long the Chatree mine can operate. Given Kingsgate has become profitable over the past 5 years and has earnings and revenue forecast to grow faster than the wider Australian market, a DCF approach can sometimes capture elements that a simple multiple misses. However, any cash flow based estimate remains only as robust as the inputs you are comfortable with. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. However, this hinges on a single asset in Thailand, so any operational setback at Chatree or a reassessment of those cash flow assumptions could quickly challenge that optimism. Find out about the key risks to this Kingsgate Consolidated narrative. Another View: Cash Flows Paint a Very Different Picture If the 62x P/E makes Kingsgate look expensive, our DCF model tells a very different story. On that cash flow view, the shares trade about 79.8% below an estimated A$33.85 per share future cash flow value, which suggests the current price might be baking in far more caution. Which lens do you trust more? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. KCN Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Kingsgate Consolidated for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 864 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Kingsgate Consolidated Narrative If this view does not quite fit with how you see Kingsgate, or you prefer to rely on your own work, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes using Do it your way. A great starting point for your Kingsgate Consolidated research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Kingsgate has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you do not miss other opportunities that might fit your style.  Spot potential mispricings early by scanning these 864 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that could offer more for each dollar you commit. Ride powerful technology trends by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that tap into artificial intelligence across different industries. Boost your income focus by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that already meet a 3% yield threshold.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Kingsgate Consolidated might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}