A Look At Turning Point Brands (TPB) Valuation After Strong Q3 Beat And Updated Capital Plans

Simply Wall St.

Jan 28

Turning Point Brands (TPB) is back in focus after third quarter revenue and EBITDA surpassed analyst expectations, supported by strength in its Modern Oral segment, an expanded at-the-market share ...

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This suggests momentum has been building around recent earnings and...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4075":"烟草","TPB":"Turning Point Brands Inc."},"translate_title":"第三季度强劲表现和更新资本计划后的转折点品牌(TPB)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TPB":1.5},"content_text":"Turning Point Brands (TPB) is back in focus after third quarter revenue and EBITDA surpassed analyst expectations, supported by strength in its Modern Oral segment, an expanded at-the-market share program, and a declared quarterly dividend. See our latest analysis for Turning Point Brands. The stock has been on a strong run, with a 38.24% 90 day share price return and a very large 3 year total shareholder return of 4.37x. This suggests momentum has been building around recent earnings and capital plans at a latest share price of $121.87. If this kind of move has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With TPB now trading around its price target and sitting on a very large 3 year total shareholder return of 4.37x, the key question is whether investors are still getting a bargain or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued Turning Point Brands last closed at $121.87, a touch above the most followed fair value estimate of $121.25, so the story now hinges on what assumptions sit behind that near match.  Strong growth in the Modern Oral nicotine pouch segment, with sales growing nearly 8x year-over-year and now accounting for 26% of total revenue, positions TPB to capture significant market share in a category projected to reach $10 billion by decade's end. This is expected to drive long-term revenue and margin expansion as the modern oral segment scales and premiumizes.  Read the complete narrative. For readers curious about the revenue trajectory and margin changes implied by that fair value, and about the valuation multiple that supports it, the full narrative lays out the specific assumptions analysts are using to justify that price tag. Result: Fair Value of $121.25 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story could change quickly if Modern Oral growth falls short of expectations, or if tighter nicotine pouch regulation hits volumes and margins. Find out about the key risks to this Turning Point Brands narrative.  Build Your Own Turning Point Brands Narrative If you see the numbers differently or would rather test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes. Do it your way A great starting point for your Turning Point Brands research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If TPB has you thinking bigger, do not stop at one ticker. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to quickly surface fresh ideas that match your style.  Spot potential bargains by scanning these 879 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where prices and cash flow expectations may be out of sync. Ride powerful tech themes by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends. Add an income angle by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering yields above 3% for potential cash returns.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Turning Point Brands might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}