智通财经APP获悉，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.68%，报16.13港元，成交额3.12亿港元。
东海证券发布研报指出，截至1月15日生鲜乳均价3.03元/公斤，周环比+0.01元/公斤，原奶价格处于2010年10月水平。2025年下半年以来，原奶价格维持在3.02-3.04元/公斤震荡，价格持续低位，牧场产能加速去化。截至1月23日，淘汰母牛价格19.93元/公斤，较年初+2.5%，行业供需拐点逐步到来。此外，乳制品及牛肉进口政策落地提振国内需求替代，利好2026年肉奶价格。
花旗发布研报称，在中国大型消费必需品企业中，预期蒙牛乳业的今年周期性盈利复苏将较同业更为显着。该行预期，集团销售额将于今年1月至2月恢复至高单位数增长，全年有望增长5%。随着原奶价格在今年中周期性回稳，加上正面经营杠杆及比较基数较低，公司的经营利润率将于今年重新扩张。
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