Centene (CNC) Valuation Check As ACA Profit Return Moves Put Regulatory Pressure In Focus

Simply Wall St.

Jan 26

UnitedHealth’s decision to return Affordable Care Act profits has put sector regulation in focus, raising questions about how any similar measures could reshape Centene (CNC) and its reliance on ...

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In contrast, the 1 year total shareholder return...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z6F94.USD":"Legg Mason Royce - US Smaller Companies A Acc USD","LU2362540622.SGD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1699723380.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"AP\" (USD) ACC","ACA":"Arcosa Inc","CNC":"康西哥","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0130517989.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"R\" INC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0130518102.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"R\" INC","LU0477156797.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","IE0034390439.USD":"FTGF ROYCE US SMALLER COMPANIES \"A\" (USD) D","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4129":"建筑与工程","LU0477156953.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4154":"管理型保健护理"},"translate_title":"随着ACA利润回报的变化，Centene(CNC)估值检查成为监管压力的焦点","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CNC":1.5,"ACA":1.5},"content_text":"UnitedHealth’s decision to return Affordable Care Act profits has put sector regulation in focus, raising questions about how any similar measures could reshape Centene (CNC) and its reliance on health exchange earnings. See our latest analysis for Centene. Against the backdrop of potential Affordable Care Act profit rebates, Centene’s share price has climbed, with a 30 day share price return of 13.77% and a 90 day share price return of 38.87%. In contrast, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 30.05% decline and 3 year total shareholder return of a 38.30% decline point to longer term underperformance and fading momentum over time. If this regulatory debate has you rethinking health insurers, it may also be a good moment to look across other healthcare stocks that could fit your watchlist. With Centene trading at US$46.09, sitting below its implied intrinsic value yet slightly above the current analyst price target, you have to ask: is this an overlooked opportunity or is the market already baking in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 12.1% Overvalued Centene’s most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at about $41.12, which sits below the current $46.09 share price and presents the recent rebound in a different light.  Analysts have raised their implied fair value estimate for Centene to about US$41 from roughly US$40, reflecting a mix of higher price targets tied to recent earnings beats and margin recovery expectations in Marketplace and Medicaid, partially balanced by concerns around Medicaid trends and contract losses.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what sits behind that fair value call? Revenue growth, margin repair and a lower discount rate all feed into the model. The exact mix may surprise you. Result: Fair Value of $41.12 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the narrative still leans on policy outcomes and cost control, and setbacks in Medicaid rate adequacy or ACA subsidy support could quickly test those assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Centene narrative. Another Angle: Cash Flows Point to a Very Different Story While the most popular narrative sees Centene as about 12.1% overvalued at a fair value of $41.12, our DCF model paints the opposite picture. On that view, Centene at $46.09 sits around 78.5% below an estimated future cash flow value of $214.16. Which story do you think better matches the risks you see? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. CNC Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Centene Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to weigh the assumptions yourself, you can rework the inputs and build a fresh Centene story in minutes, Do it your way. A great starting point for your Centene research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss other opportunities that better match your goals. Consider widening your search with a few focused screens.  Target potential mispricings by checking out these 874 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where you can filter for companies trading below their cash flow based estimates. Tap into fast moving themes by scouting these 23 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence and related growth stories. Strengthen your income focus by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, built for finding companies with dividend yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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