港股异动 | 煤炭股午后走强 煤价上涨叠加企业降本支撑业绩改善 板块有望走出春季行情

智通财经
Jan 28

智通财经APP获悉,煤炭股午后走强,截至发稿,中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%,报4.11港元;力量发展(01277)涨8.18%,报1.72港元;兖矿能源(01171)涨4.25%,报11.52港元;中国神华(01088)涨3.62%,报43.54港元;中煤能源(01898)涨3.27%,报11.38港元。

华源证券发布研报称,2023年以来,煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势,2025Q3是除2023Q4之外,少有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季,在煤价中枢上行背景下,预计2025Q4板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升,2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上,2026年1月初,部分省份推动煤炭部分保供产能退出,据测算,当前煤炭年度宽松约1亿吨水平,若相关保供产能退出落地,有望大幅改善煤炭供需,并推动煤炭库存显著去化,2026年内煤价弹性可期。

浙商证券指出,展望“十五五”,全球焦煤供弱需强,供需格局逆转,产量下降,需求向上,价格有望抬升,叠加成本下行,预计业绩显著改善;焦煤产能刚性,若价格上涨供给难增,价格弹性较大。年初至今,焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨,焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位,预计一季度业绩显著改善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司,未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。

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