A Look At WaFd’s (WAFD) Valuation After Its Regulatory Upgrade And Expansion Plans

Simply Wall St.

Jan 29

WaFd (WAFD) is back in focus after regulators upgraded the bank’s rating, reversing a prior “needs to improve” assessment and clearing the way for its planned expansion, a key development for ...

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See our latest analysis for WaFd. Despite a modest 1-day share price decline of 0.22% and a 7-day share price decline of 2.02%, WaFd’s 90-day share price return of 9.19% and 1-year total shareholder return of 11.74% suggest momentum has been building around the upgraded regulatory rating, recent earnings update and ongoing share buybacks, even as longer term total shareholder returns over 3 years remain slightly negative and 5-year total shareholder returns sit in positive territory. If WaFd’s regulatory win has you thinking about where the next opportunity could come from, it may be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other potential ideas. With WaFd trading at $31.95, sitting about 4% below the average analyst target and at an estimated 15% intrinsic discount, the key question is whether this reflects undervaluation or if the market already prices in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 3.1% Overvalued WaFd’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $31, slightly below the last close of $31.95, which raises questions about how its earnings path is being priced in.  The Build 2030 shift toward true commercial banking and small business relationships, including reorganized business, corporate and commercial real estate banking teams, positions WaFd to grow higher yielding C&I and CRE loans, supporting faster revenue and earnings growth. Ongoing runoff of low yielding single family mortgage loans and redeployment into higher yielding agency mortgage backed securities with no credit risk should structurally lift asset yields and net interest margin over time, improving net income.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue path, profit margin profile and future earnings multiple need to line up to support that $31 fair value? The full narrative breaks down the growth mix shift, equity returns and required re rating step by step, so you can see exactly how those assumptions stack up against your own view. Result: Fair Value of $31 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you still need to weigh up whether the Build 2030 shift into higher yielding commercial lending, and any easing in rates, actually play out as expected. Find out about the key risks to this WaFd narrative. Another Angle On Value While the most popular narrative describes WaFd as approximately 3.1% overvalued at $31, the share price of $31.95 is 14.9% below our estimate of future cash flow value at $37.53 using the SWS DCF model. This raises the question of whether the crowd is relying too heavily on near term assumptions. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. WAFD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own WaFd Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to lean on your own work, you can test the assumptions, adjust the inputs and Do it your way in just a few minutes. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding WaFd. Looking for more investment ideas? If WaFd is on your radar, do not stop there. The Screener surfaces other focused ideas that could sharpen your watchlist and broaden your opportunities.  Spot underappreciated cash flow stories early by checking out these 877 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, so you are not only reacting once everyone else has noticed them. Explore developments in digital assets by scanning these 19 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and see which listed plays are tied to cryptocurrency and blockchain themes. Consider current income opportunities with these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, highlighting businesses that currently offer dividend yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if WaFd might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}