Assessing Yancoal Australia (ASX:YAL) Valuation After Delivering Higher 2025 Coal Production And Meeting Guidance

Simply Wall St.

Jan 30

Yancoal Australia (ASX:YAL) has drawn fresh attention after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 production figures, with ROM and saleable coal volumes above the prior period and production ...

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The 5 year total shareholder return...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK7083":"煤与消费用燃料","BK7509":"中概股","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","YAL.AU":"YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LTD","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数"},"translate_title":"在交付更高的2025年煤炭产量并满足指导后评估兖煤澳大利亚(ASX：YAL)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XJO.AU":1.5,"DCF":1,"XAO.AU":1.5,"XKO.AU":1.5,"YAL.AU":1.5},"content_text":"Yancoal Australia (ASX:YAL) has drawn fresh attention after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 production figures, with ROM and saleable coal volumes above the prior period and production guidance reaffirmed and delivered. See our latest analysis for Yancoal Australia. The production update comes after a strong recent run in the shares, with a 17.41% 1 month share price return and a 15.77% year to date share price return at a last close of A$5.8. The 5 year total shareholder return of 305.09% sits well ahead of the 2.04% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests long term holders have seen a very large gain even as shorter term momentum has cooled and then picked up again. If this kind of operational update has your attention, it could be a good time to broaden your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other potential ideas. With production guidance delivered, long term returns potentially very large and an intrinsic value estimate that sits well above the current A$5.80 share price, the key question now is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementPreferred P/E of 8x: Is it justified? On the numbers provided, Yancoal Australia screens as inexpensive relative to both its own cash flow based estimate and other oil and gas names, even after the recent share price move to A$5.80. The key reference point here is the P/E multiple. Yancoal is currently on 8x earnings, which is described as good value compared to the Oceanic oil and gas industry average of 17.5x and also below a peer average of 11.8x. For a company that reports high quality earnings and has grown profits by an average of 26.3% per year over the past 5 years, that is a relatively low earnings multiple. There is also an internal fair P/E estimate of 12.4x. Against that yardstick, the current 8x level looks compressed, with the fair ratio pointing to a level the market could move towards if sentiment or expectations shift. Alongside this, the SWS DCF model suggests an intrinsic future cash flow value of A$17.84 per share compared to the current A$5.80 price, indicating the shares are trading well below that modelled fair value. At the same time, earnings and revenue are forecast to decline over the next 3 years, net profit margins have eased from 18.2% to 14.9%, and return on equity of 10.9% is described as low. That mix of past profit growth, current low P/E and softer forward expectations gives you a clear trade off to consider when you think about how the market is pricing the stock today. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Yancoal Australia Result: Price-to-Earnings of 8x (UNDERVALUED) However, you still need to weigh risks such as annual revenue and net income declines, as well as the wider sensitivity of coal demand across Yancoal’s export markets. Find out about the key risks to this Yancoal Australia narrative. Another view on value: what if the cash flows are right? The earnings multiple paints Yancoal as cheap, but the SWS DCF model goes further, pointing to an intrinsic future cash flow value of A$17.84 per share versus today’s A$5.80. If that gap persists, is the market cautious for good reason, or just slow to adjust? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. YAL Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Yancoal Australia for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 868 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Yancoal Australia Narrative If you do not see the story in the same way or prefer to rely on your own work, you can test the data yourself in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Yancoal Australia research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Yancoal Australia is on your radar, do not stop there. Use the tools at your fingertips to spot other opportunities before everyone else catches on.  Target potential mispriced opportunities by scanning these 868 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more for every dollar you commit. Explore income-focused ideas by checking out these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that could help you build a steadier cash return stream. Research fast-moving themes by looking into these 19 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks that are tied to digital assets and blockchain adoption.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}