Is Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Pricing Reflect Longer Term Gains After Recent Share Price Slide

Simply Wall St.

Jan 30

If you are looking at Deckers Outdoor and asking whether the current share price lines up with the underlying business, this article walks through what the numbers are actually saying about value ...

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The stock recently closed at US$99.90, with returns of a 1.7% decline over 7 days, a 4.9% decline over 30 days, a 6.5% decline year to date and a 55.2% decline over 1 year, compared with gains of 42.3% over 3 years and 89.2% over 5 years, which may change how you think about its growth potential and risk. These moves have come alongside ongoing interest in Deckers Outdoor as a branded footwear and apparel business, with investors reacting to how its products are resonating with consumers and how that translates into long term expectations. While short term sentiment can swing quickly, the current price history gives useful context for thinking about what might already be built into the valuation. On our 6 point valuation checklist, Deckers Outdoor scores 3 out of 6. This suggests some areas look potentially cheap while others do not. Next, we look at how different valuation methods treat the stock, before finishing with a more rounded way to think about value beyond a single model.  Find out why Deckers Outdoor's -55.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Deckers Outdoor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes forecasts of a company's future cash flows and discounts them back to today to estimate what the business might be worth right now. For Deckers Outdoor, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $960.96 million. Analysts have provided explicit forecasts for several years, for example $925.94 million in 2026 and $980.26 million in 2027, with later years extrapolated by Simply Wall St rather than directly forecast by analysts. Looking out ten years, the extrapolated free cash flow for 2035 is $459.75 million, with each future year discounted back to reflect the time value of money. When these discounted cash flows are added together, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $56.61 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$99.90, this DCF outcome suggests Deckers Outdoor is around 76.5% overvalued on this measure. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Deckers Outdoor may be overvalued by 76.5%. Discover 865 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. DECK Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Deckers Outdoor. Approach 2: Deckers Outdoor Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay directly to the earnings the business is already generating. You can think of a \"normal\" P/E as a balance between how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how much risk investors feel they are taking on, with higher growth or lower perceived risk usually justifying a higher multiple. Deckers Outdoor currently trades on a P/E of 14.34x. That sits below the Luxury industry average of 18.21x and well below the peer average of 37.03x, so on simple comparisons the stock carries a lower earnings multiple than many peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Deckers Outdoor is 16.50x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a more tailored P/E might look like, based on factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these company level inputs rather than relying only on broad peer or industry comparisons, the Fair Ratio can be a more targeted gauge of what investors might reasonably pay for each dollar of earnings. With a Fair Ratio of 16.50x versus the current 14.34x, Deckers Outdoor screens as undervalued on this P/E based view. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:DECK P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1412 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Deckers Outdoor Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Deckers Outdoor’s business with the numbers behind it. A Narrative is your story about a company, where you spell out what you think happens to its revenue, earnings and margins over time. This then flows into a financial forecast and, ultimately, a fair value per share. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, you can pick or build a Narrative for Deckers Outdoor. You can compare its fair value with the current share price to help decide how you view the stock, and watch that view update automatically when fresh news or earnings are added to the model. For Deckers Outdoor, one Narrative might assume a relatively cautious path for future growth and profitability with a lower fair value estimate. Another Narrative might assume stronger adoption of its brands, higher margins and a higher fair value estimate. This shows how two investors can look at the same company and reach very different conclusions using the same framework. Do you think there's more to the story for Deckers Outdoor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:DECK 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}