A Look At Medibank Private’s Valuation As Earnings Growth And Dividends Support Positive Sentiment

Simply Wall St.

Jan 31

Recent commentary around Medibank Private (ASX:MPL) has centred on its consistent earnings growth and dividend payouts, prompting investors to look more closely at what stable EPS and income ...

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Its 1 year total shareholder return of 20.03% and 5 year total shareholder...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MPL.AU":"MEDIBANK PRIVATE LTD"},"translate_title":"盈利增长和股息支持积极情绪，审视Medibank Private的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MPL.AU":1.5},"content_text":"Recent commentary around Medibank Private (ASX:MPL) has centred on its consistent earnings growth and dividend payouts, prompting investors to look more closely at what stable EPS and income distributions might mean for the stock. See our latest analysis for Medibank Private. At a share price of A$4.62, Medibank Private has seen a 7 day share price return of 1.54% but a 90 day share price return decline of 5.33%. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 20.03% and 5 year total shareholder return of 87.70% highlight how dividends have contributed meaningfully to longer term outcomes, suggesting recent price softness contrasts with a stronger multi year record. If Medibank’s mix of income and resilience appeals to you, it could be a good moment to see what else is on offer across healthcare stocks. With earnings and dividends holding investors’ attention, the key question now is whether Medibank’s current A$4.62 share price and recent 1 year and 5 year returns leave any valuation upside on the table, or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 10.4% Undervalued Medibank Private’s last close of A$4.62 sits below the most followed fair value estimate of A$5.16, which is built using a 6.668% discount rate and longer term earnings assumptions.  The expansion and scaling of primary care clinics, virtual health, and home care offerings position Medibank to benefit from the shift in consumer preferences toward preventative care and at home healthcare, helping to differentiate its offering, limit claims inflation, and improve net margins.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue growth, margin profile and future earnings multiple are baked in here? The full narrative sets out a detailed road map that ties those operating drivers back to that A$5.16 fair value. Result: Fair Value of A$5.16 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are still clear pressure points, including cost of living driven policy downgrades and rising healthcare provider costs, which could squeeze margins and challenge this upbeat scenario. Find out about the key risks to this Medibank Private narrative. Another View: Multiples Paint a Tougher Picture While the most popular narrative points to A$5.16 as fair value, Medibank trades on a P/E of 25.4x versus a 20.7x fair ratio and 12.1x for the global insurance group, with peers around 26.3x. That premium raises a simple question: how much optimism is already in the price? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. ASX:MPL P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Medibank Private Narrative If you view the numbers differently or want to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a personalised Medibank view in minutes by starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Medibank Private research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Medibank is just one piece of your watchlist, now is the time to broaden your search and line up a few more quality candidates.  Scan for income focused names by checking out these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may suit a portfolio built around regular cash returns. Spot potential growth stories by reviewing these 25 AI penny stocks that are plugged into the rise of artificial intelligence. Hunt for potential mispriced opportunities with these 867 undervalued stocks based on cash flows before they attract broader attention.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}