Caterpillar Stock Jumps On Earnings Beat. Why It's a Surprise AI Play. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones
Jan 29

Al Root

Caterpillar stock rose after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings.

The machinery maker announced earnings per share of $5.16 on sales of $19.1 billion on Thursday. Wall Street was looking for earnings per share of $4.71 from sales of $17.9 billion.

Shares were up 2.6% at $660 in premarket trading, shortly after results were released.

This is breaking news. Check back for updates. Read a preview of Cat's earnings report below.

Caterpillar stock, a household name for industrial investors, has become a surprise artificial-intelligence stock. That moves expectations up for the company's fourth-quarter earnings report due on Thursday.

For the quarter, Wall Street is looking for earnings per share of $4.71 from sales of $17.9 billion. A year ago, Caterpillar reported earnings per share of $5.14 from sales of $16.2 billion.

Operating profit margins have been lower year over year, partly due to tariff impacts and weaker pricing.

For 2026, Wall Street expects improvement. Analysts project an operating profit of $13.3 billion, up from about $11.5 billion in 2025, and sales of almost $72 billion, up from just over $66 billion in 2025.

J.P. Morgan analyst Tami Zakaria wrote in a preview report that investors will focus on pricing commentary and expect positive momentum in the company's construction and power generation businesses.

Just how much improvement will satisfy investors is hard to say. Through Wednesday's close, Cat stock was up 65% over the past 12 months, about 50 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500, with investors focused on the company's power-generation business amid a boom in AI data center construction.

"Global electricity demand is expected to increase 40% by 2035; data centers are a primary driver, expected to see a 200% increase in consumption," wrote Baird analyst Mig Dobre in a January report. "In the U.S. alone, data centers are expected to require greater than 100 gigawatts of additional power by 2035."

Caterpillar doesn't make the largest utility-scale gas-powered turbines for electricity generation, but it does have a strong position in gas-powered generators, needed for backup power.

More power means more business. Just how much will be a discussion for investors, analysts, and Caterpillar management on Thursday.

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January 29, 2026 07:02 ET (12:02 GMT)

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