金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，1月下旬以来，美国遭遇冬季风暴极端天气已造成部分受灾地区天然气/电力供应中断、能源价格上涨等影响，其中作为美国化工重要供给区的得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸炼油、化工等部分工厂开工已受影响。考虑到美国较多大宗化工品占全球产能比重仍较高，因而本轮寒潮导致的潜在供给下滑或对相关产品的供应稳定性造成一定冲击。该机构认为国内大宗化工品行业自2025H2开始已步入产能周期拐点，且库存周期亦处于补库拐点，2026Q2伴随内外需逐步修复，油价下行预期消退，行业有望进入盈利修复。该机构认为因美国寒潮导致的海外供给潜在下滑，或加速国内相关化工品开工率提升和景气改善，尤其是炼油、乙烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI等美国本土产能占比较高的相关品种，同时炼油、烯烃等产业链下游产品亦有望受益，如乙二醇、聚烯烃等。
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