花旗:上调理文造纸(02314)评级至“买入” 目标价上调至4.2港元

智通财经
Jan 29

智通财经APP获悉,花旗发布研报称,将理文造纸(02314)的投资评级由“沽售”上调至“买入”,目标价更大幅调升75%,从原先的2.4港元上调至4.2港元。此调整主要基于对造纸行业盈利周期已触底,并逐步改善的判断,理文造纸现价相当于预测市盈率8倍,提供4.2%股息,估值具备吸引力。

报告指出,虽然理文造纸自身的盈利增长幅度可能不及同业玖龙纸业(02689),但玖龙纸业近期发布的盈利预警传递出一个关键信号,造纸行业的整体盈利能力在2025年下半年预计不会较上半年进一步恶化。花旗分析师据此认为,行业盈利最艰难的时期可能已经过去,未来将迎来温和改善。

从业务层面看,报告认为理文造纸的盈利复苏将主要驱动于箱板纸和卫生纸业务的利润率回升。花旗预计,受益于这两大主营产品利润率的强劲反弹,理文造纸的毛利率将呈现与同行相似的改善趋势:预计2025年下半年毛利率将同比显著扩张4.3个百分点,并较上半年扩张1.1个百分点。同时,销售额也有望恢复增长,预计2025年下半年销售额将同比上升5.9%,至约142.88亿港元,扭转上半年因产品均价下跌而录得的跌幅。

报告亦提及,理文造纸预计将于2026年3月初公布2025年全年业绩,这可能成为股价近期的正面催化剂。不过,花旗在造纸板块中的首选仍是玖龙纸业,因其拥有更为强大的上下游垂直整合能力,能更有效地控制成本。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10