国泰海通证券：维持玖龙纸业(02689)“增持”评级浆纸一体化驱动价值重构

智通财经

Jan 30

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持玖龙纸业(02689)“增持”评级，考虑公司经营近况，预计公司FY2026-2028年EPS为0.85/0.94/1.03元(原FY2026-2027年EPS为0.48/0.52元)，参考行业估值水平，给予公司FY2026年25xPE，目标价为23.1港元(汇率为1港币兑0.92人民币)。

国泰海通证券主要观点如下：

FY26H1经营状况

玖龙纸业FY26H1剔除永续资本证券应占盈利2亿元后，预计盈利19.5-20.5亿元，同比增长315.2%-336.5%，环比增长50.3%-58.0%，盈利增长主要得益于产品销售量增加及销售价格上升，及原材料成本下降而导致毛利润大幅增加，主要利润贡献来源于浆。

增量利润贡献主要来自湖北与北海基地浆纸一体化产能

FY25H1北海基地110万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆投产;FY25H2&26H1新增产能包括湖北65万吨化学浆、70万吨化机浆、120万吨白卡纸，广西70万吨文化纸(pm56、pm55)，北海基地FY24/25新投产能陆续爬坡。

FY26H2展望

展望FY26H2，该行认为阔叶浆短期有望进一步提涨并维持高位，文化及白卡纸价及吨盈利均处于历史低位，有望进一步顺价，浆纸一体化利润持续释放。该行认为浆纸一体化产能盈利能力突出为主要超预期点，FY26H2及FY27浆纸产能还将有投产及爬坡，叠加箱板瓦楞纸盈利改善，持续重点推荐。

风险提示

下游需求修复不及预期、原材料价格大幅上涨。

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