金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，当前碳减排领域正处政策与市场双轮驱动的价值重构期：碳价在2024年底达98元/吨高点后，2025年受能源价格回落、新能源替代影响下行至38元/吨，2026年以来依托电力履约需求、钢铁/水泥/铝冶炼行业碳市场扩围落地、配额结转政策支撑企稳，而绿证长期低位运行、仅为同期碳价8%。该机构指，展望未来，碳价与绿证市场将在政策推动下迎来价值重估：1）碳市场从“软约束”转向“硬约束”，2027年将基本覆盖工业领域主要排放行业，有偿配额分配比例提升、配额总量逐年收紧，碳价长期上涨动力充足，我们预计2030年前有望升至150-200元/吨区间；2）政策层面已明确推动绿证环境价值与碳减排价值挂钩，未来有望建立绿证兑换碳配额的机制，或允许绿证用于部分行业的碳抵消，绿证价格将向碳价逐步靠拢，绿电经济性显著增强；3）碳成本与绿证成本的电价传导路径将更加清晰，企业自行消化成本的比例逐步降低，推动电价充分反映环境成本，支撑碳市场与绿证市场发展。
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