金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，其最新的全球电解铝供需分析显示，2026 年电解铝供应紧缺将持续，主要由于：(1) 中国电解铝产能利用率已近饱和（2025 年 12 月达到 4500 万吨产能上限的~99%）；(2) 海外（中国以外地区）新增产能有限。该机构预测2026年电解铝价格将同比上涨 15%。尽管该机构预计 2027 年海外产能扩张加快，但铝价或仍将维持高位，主要由于总体供应紧缺仍将持续（尽管缺口将有所收窄）。
该机构首次覆盖创新实业(02788，目标价：32 港元)，给予“买入”评级（核心逻辑：沙特产能扩张；现有成本优势得益于绿色电力陆续投运将进一步扩大）。
此外，该机构维持对中国宏桥(01378)的“买入”评级，上调目标价至 45 港元，主要由于该机构上调铝价假设。该机构认为近期的股价回调提供了良好的买入时机。
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