Assessing Atlas Arteria’s Valuation After Q4 2025 Toll Revenue Growth And Resilient Traffic Performance

Simply Wall St.

Feb 04

AdvertisementWhat Atlas Arteria’s latest revenue update means for shareholders Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX) has reported Q4 and full-year 2025 toll revenue growth of about 9.5%, supported by higher traffic...

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See our latest analysis for Atlas Arteria. Despite the solid toll revenue update, Atlas Arteria’s recent 30 day share price return of 1.23% and year to date share price return of 1.23% suggest momentum has softened. The 1 year total shareholder return of 4.96% contrasts with a weaker 3 year total shareholder return of 12.45% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 17.42%. If this toll road update has you reconsidering your portfolio mix, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Q4 toll revenue growth near 9.5% and the share price slightly weaker over 30 and 90 days, the key question is whether Atlas Arteria still trades below its worth or if the market already prices in future growth. Price to earnings of 23.4x: Is it justified? Atlas Arteria is trading on a P/E of 23.4x, while our DCF model suggests a fair value of A$14.86 per share compared with the last close at A$4.81. The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share and is one of the most common ways investors weigh up similar businesses. For Atlas Arteria, a 23.4x P/E places a clear price tag on each dollar of current earnings. According to Simply Wall St’s checks, this P/E is considered expensive relative to the global infrastructure industry average of 15.6x. It also sits slightly above the estimated fair P/E of 23.2x. At the same time, the shares are described as trading 67.6% below the internal fair value estimate from the SWS DCF model, which projects future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s terms to estimate what the business might be worth based on those cash flows. This creates a tension for investors to weigh up, because the P/E is framed as expensive compared with both industry and the fair P/E, while the DCF output points to a large gap between the current A$4.81 price and the A$14.86 fair value figure. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Atlas Arteria Result: Price to earnings of 23.4x (OVERVALUED) However, you still need to watch for any disruption to toll road usage or changes in regulation and concession terms, as these could challenge this valuation gap. Find out about the key risks to this Atlas Arteria narrative. Another view using cash flows While the 23.4x P/E suggests Atlas Arteria is priced a little rich against the 23.2x fair ratio and 15.6x industry average, the SWS DCF model points the other way, with an estimated fair value of A$14.86 per share versus the current A$4.81. This gap, with the share price described as trading 67.6% below that DCF estimate, highlights a clear tension between what earnings multiples imply and what projected cash flows suggest. For you as an investor, the key question is which signal you regard as more informative when assessing what you are willing to pay. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. ALX Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Atlas Arteria for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 873 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Atlas Arteria Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to run your own checks, you can build a personalised view of Atlas Arteria in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Atlas Arteria research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Atlas Arteria is on your radar, do not stop there. Use the wider toolkit of ideas so your next move is thoughtful rather than rushed.  Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning these 873 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade below what their cash flows suggest they might be worth. Ride powerful technology themes by zeroing in on these 25 AI penny stocks positioned at the intersection of AI trends and listed markets. Add income focused options to your watchlist by screening these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}