金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，受补贴政策以及购置税调整的双重影响，2026年1月多数新能源乘用车企销量实现同比增长，但环比下滑明显，其中 9家车企销量同/环比5.7%/-43.9%。1Q26车市受季节性淡季与前期消费透支的双重影响，整体表现平淡。尽管以旧换新政策的延续对年初预期形成支撑，但受限于15万元以内车型补贴力度退坡，消费者观望情绪加剧，倾向于等待地方补贴细则落地，致使年初部分购车需求延后释放。近日上海市汽车置换更新补贴细则发布，随着各地相关政策落地，车市有望逐步回暖。
个股方面，建议关注：小鹏汽车(09868/XPEV US/买入)全新P7/增程车型陆续上市，同时海外本地化生产逐步落地，带动销量和毛利率提升；吉利汽车(00175/买入)私有化极氪后推动内部资源整合；比亚迪(01211/买入)海外产能进入放量期，海外销量的高增长有望进一步优化公司整体利润结构。
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