EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm FX muted, stocks decline as investors pause after rally

Reuters
Feb 04
EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm FX muted, stocks decline as investors pause after rally

Colombia's Petro, Trump make amends at White House

Chile's central bank held rates to avoid market reaction

Reuters: Russia's public deficit can balloon to triple of target

By Purvi Agarwal

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies were subdued against the dollar in choppy trading on Wednesday, while equities declined as investors booked some profits after a metals-driven rally in the previous session.

MSCI's gauge of LatAm equities .MILA00000PUS fell 1.5%, after marking its biggest one-day jump since March on Tuesday.

EM assets have been roiled by a sharp plunge in precious metals and a slight recovery in the dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for the head of the Federal Reserve last week.

"It's a sort of pause, but also we don't see any catalysts right now to give a trend to the currency market right now... all the Latin currencies are performing depending on the commodity market local factors have been put in the backburner," said Andres Abadia, chief LatAm economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"Still, in most of these markets, valuations are still attractive and if you take into account the carry trade, it is also supporting inflows to the region."

Heavyweight Brazilian stocks .BVSP slipped 1.5%, after gains in the previous two sessions. Financial stocks, which had buoyed the index recently, declined with Bradesco BBDC4.SA down 2.2%.

Chilean equities .SPIPSA slipped 0.2%.

Stocks in Mexico .MXX and Colombia .COLCAP shed 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, aided by a rise in oil prices on renewed fears of an escalation between the U.S. and Iran.

LatAm currencies were mixed but subdued against the dollar, with MSCI's measure .MILA00000CUS down 0.4%.

Colombia's peso COP= gained 0.2% in low volumes. Investors cheered Tuesday's cordial face-to-face meeting between Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, defying the fears of some analysts and advisers who questioned whether the two would get along.

Brazil's real BRL= and Mexico's peso MXN= slipped about 0.1% each, while Chile's peso CLP= inched 0.3% higher.

Policymakers at Chile's central bank agreed that the country's benchmark interest rate should converge to the midpoint of its 3.75%-4.75% neutral range, but decided to hold it at 4.5% last month to avoid potential negative market reactions, minutes of the meeting showed on Wednesday.

A Reuters poll found that LatAm currencies will probably lose some shine with the upcoming appointment of a new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair in May, as hawkish signals from the Fed could reduce room for interest rate cuts in the region.

Elsewhere, Poland's central bank kept interest rates steady at 4%, as expected.

Reuters reported that Russia's public deficit could balloon to almost triple the official target by end-2026 as a fall in Indian purchases of oil and growing oil trade discounts eat into revenues while spending may be higher than expected.

It comes a day after India signed a trade deal with the U.S. to lower tariffs on its products, and agreed to halt Russian oil purchases.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1533.61

-0.16

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

3175.29

-1.50

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

182870.77

-1.51

Mexico IPC .MXX

69392.3

-0.49

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

11581.61

-0.24

Argentina Merval .MERV

3060806.33

0.73

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

2419.59

-0.7

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.2422

-0.07

Mexico peso MXN=

17.2406

-0.07

Chile peso CLP=

855.5

0.26

Colombia peso COP=

3643.04

0.2

Peru sol PEN=

3.3573

0.1

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1446

-0.14

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1440

-0.70

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru, Editing by Franklin Paul)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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