A Look At Jumia Technologies (JMIA) Valuation As Turnaround Progress And Profitability Goals Draw Fresh Interest

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Feb 03

AdvertisementWhy Jumia’s turnaround plan is back in focus Recent commentary around Jumia Technologies (JMIA) and CEO Francis Dufay’s turnaround plan, which includes store closures, logistics expansion...

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See our latest analysis for Jumia Technologies. The latest commentary around the turnaround comes after a mixed stretch for the stock, with a 14.98% 90 day share price return and a very large 217.74% 1 year total shareholder return, contrasting with a 79.83% 5 year total shareholder loss and more recent short term share price weakness from the US$12.36 level. If Jumia’s story has you rethinking your e commerce exposure, this can be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Jumia targeting profitability by 2027, a recent 1 year total return above 200%, and the shares still around 20% below one analyst price target, is there real upside left here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 76.7% Overvaluled Compared with Jumia’s last close at $12.36, the most followed narrative anchors on a much lower fair value, which frames the current turnaround optimism in a very different light.  The stock may be benefiting from optimism around Jumia's accelerated expansion into underserved secondary cities and rural areas, driven by rising internet and smartphone adoption and urbanization trends in Africa, but expectations may be overly ambitious given the persistent underdevelopment of logistical and digital infrastructure, which could ultimately cap addressable user growth and increase operating costs, thus constraining revenue and margin expansion.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue lift, margin shift, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value cut? The core assumptions might surprise you. Short timelines, ambitious profitability swing, and a premium multiple far above sector norms all sit at the heart of this story. Result: Fair Value of $6.99 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, if logistics reach improves faster than expected and higher margin services like advertising or third party delivery scale meaningfully, that bearish case could soften. Find out about the key risks to this Jumia Technologies narrative.  Build Your Own Jumia Technologies Narrative If you are not on board with that view or simply want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a personal Jumia thesis yourself in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Jumia Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Jumia is only one piece of your watchlist, do not stop here. The screener can surface fresh opportunities that others might be overlooking right now.  Target consistent income potential by screening for these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may suit a more income focused approach. Position yourself early by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are linked to artificial intelligence themes across different parts of the market. Hunt for value by reviewing these 871 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that the screener flags based on their cash flow profiles.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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