Novartis Guidance in Focus as Drug Patent Losses Loom -- Earnings Preview

Dow Jones
Feb 03

By Billy Gray

 

Novartis is scheduled to report results for 2025 on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know.

 

SALES FORECAST: The Swiss drugmaker is expected to post sales of $54.82 billion, according to consensus estimates provided by Visible Alpha. Novartis posted $50.32 billion in sales for 2024.

 

CORE OPERATING PROFIT: Novartis is expected to report core operating profit--one of its preferred metrics, which strips out exceptional items--of $21.85 billion, according to Visible Alpha. The company posted $19.49 billion in core operating profit for 2024.

 

Novartis shares rose 22% over the past 12 months to close at 117.24 Swiss francs on Monday.

 

WHAT TO WATCH

 

--DEALMAKING: Novartis has recently followed an approach toward mergers and acquisitions to offset drug patent expirations, including an unusually large, $12 billion deal to buy Avidity Biosciences, announced in October. Investors will continue to monitor the company's next moves with respect to external opportunities--and the criteria underpinning them--.

--MEETING GUIDANCE: Investors might remain cautious on the group's long-term prospects due to uncertainty over whether its drug pipeline will progress as hoped, JPMorgan analysts said. Novartis is targeting annual sales growth of 5% to 6% at constant currency through 2030, which points to 2030 sales of $72.41 billion, a 9% consensus estimate beat that would require a number of successful treatment candidates. Beyond 2030, investors will likely stay cautious due to several patent expirations, JPM added. Its blockbuster heart-failure treatment began facing competition from generic competitors last year. Its third-quarter results were solid given that development, "but this challenge won't disappear," Vontobel analyst Stefan Schneider said.

 

Write to Billy Gray at william.gray@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 03, 2026 02:39 ET (07:39 GMT)

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