金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，白酒：终端动销回暖带动茅台批价上涨，白酒板块史诗级大涨，看好春节前后白酒板块或迎十年大底投资机会。茅台终端动销回暖、批价上涨带动白酒板块1月29日史诗级大涨，板块20股涨停，茅台涨8.61%报1437.72元，成交额263亿元，板块指数涨9.79%，主力资金净流入超60亿元。大涨核心因茅台动销批价超预期、资本市场认可其价格市场化改革，以及地产政策松绑、工业原料涨价带动PPI转正的预期。茅台1月回款发货进度快于去年，元旦后动销同比正增，价格改革成效凸显，行业也正跟进拿回定价权、重构渠道机制。叠加地产底部改善、PPI转正预期向消费端传导，预计2026年白酒行业见底，库存压力缓解，行业存量竞争下头部市占率将持续提升。看好春节前后白酒板块或迎十年大底投资机会，目前白酒板块估值处于历史低位，具备较强底部配置价值，同时关注消费政策催化。以业绩出清卸包袱+强品牌支撑动销+强运营赋能渠道+新营销模式探索的底部配置逻辑。
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