欧洲天然气期货价格走高，交易员评估季末寒潮风险。受库存紧张及对天气变化敏感度提升影响，今年以来市场波动性持续加剧。

　　部分预测模型显示平流层变暖事件可能正在形成 —— 这种现象可能引发强冷空气爆发 —— 这增加了北欧地区3月出现季末降温的风险，可能推高供暖需求。近期抛售潮也引发市场质疑：鉴于投资者仍持有大量多头头寸，价格还能下跌多少？

　　欧洲天然气市场自年初以来剧烈震荡，期货价格受天气预报变动、投机性仓位调整及大宗商品走势影响反复波动。目前库存充填率不足40%，在关键时点若再遭遇一波寒潮，库存消耗可能加速，尤其是在可再生能源发电偏弱、不得不更多依赖天然气和燃煤发电的情况下。

　　截至阿姆斯特丹时间下午3：51，欧洲天然气基准荷兰近月期货上涨1.6%，报每兆瓦时33.38欧元。

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