和讯投顾张福海:沪指重返4100点,风格切换下的“煤”飞色舞

和讯网
Feb 05

2月4日,A股市场呈现探底回升的V型走势,上证指数最终收涨0.85%,成功站稳4100点整数关口。值得注意的是,指数的强势表现并未掩盖市场内部的剧烈分化,全市场成交额虽达到2.5万亿元,但较前一交易日有所缩量。这一量能变化表明,随着春节长假临近,市场资金博弈趋于谨慎,存量博弈特征愈发明显,当日市场运行的核心逻辑集中体现为极致的风格切换。具体来看,资金呈现大规模撤离高位科技成长赛道、转而涌入低估值周期及防御板块的态势,其中煤炭板块成为当日市场最强主线。受印尼暂停煤炭现货出口的消息刺激,兖矿能源中煤能源等板块内核心个股掀起涨停潮,资金净流入规模位居全市场前列,成为当日资金布局的核心方向。

与此同时,光伏板块在太空光伏概念催化及产业巨头考察带来的利好支撑下表现活跃,中来股份晶科能源等个股领涨板块,成为当日市场为数不多的成长类强势方向。与此形成鲜明对比的是,前期热门的AI应用、算力硬件等科技相关方向集体回调,主力资金净流出规模超百亿元,对创业板指形成明显拖累,导致创业板指表现弱于上证指数。

从盘后龙虎榜数据来看,机构与游资的操作呈现出明显分歧。机构席位大举买入光伏、电力等当日市场主线板块,净买入额显著增加,彰显出机构对相关板块的长期看好;而游资则表现出无心恋战的态势,整体买盘意愿有所下降,尽管部分活跃游资(如作手新一)仍在重仓出击个别标的,但游资整体活跃度较前期明显降温。

总体而言,节前市场风险偏好趋于中性偏弱,资金配置逻辑更倾向于具备业绩支撑、估值处于合理区间的顺周期板块。在上证指数实现企稳的背景下,个股层面的结构性分化仍将持续。基于此,建议投资者紧跟市场资金流向,严格控制仓位,秉持谨慎操作的原则,规避高位回调风险,聚焦低估值、有业绩支撑的核心标的布局。

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