Bullish, not breathless: analysts temper base metals calls

Mining

Feb 04

It should come as no great surprise that copper is the analyst pick for best-performing base metal in 2026. Not only does the red metal play a starring role in both the energy transition and the ...

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBullish, not breathless: analysts temper base metals calls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-04 16:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.mining.com/web/bullish-not-breathless-analysts-temper-base-metals-calls/><strong>Mining</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It should come as no great surprise that copper is the analyst pick for best-performing base metal in 2026.\nNot only does the red metal play a starring role in both the energy transition and the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.mining.com/web/bullish-not-breathless-analysts-temper-base-metals-calls/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BLSH","symbol_name":"Bullish","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.mining.com/web/bullish-not-breathless-analysts-temper-base-metals-calls/","article_id":"2609432783","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/AdobeStock_255896375-scaled-e1755618165804.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"mining_highlight","url":"https://www.mining.com/web/bullish-not-breathless-analysts-temper-base-metals-calls/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609432783","pubTimestamp":1770193560,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"mining_highlight","name":"MINING.COM"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"It should come as no great surprise that copper is the analyst pick for best-performing…","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"mining.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BLSH":"Bullish","BDD":"PowerShares DB Base Metals Doubl","DBB":"基础金属ETF-PowerShares","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据"},"translate_title":"看涨，而不是气喘吁吁：分析师缓和基本金属评级","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BLSH":1.61,"DBB":1.64,"BDD":1.67},"content_text":"It should come as no great surprise that copper is the analyst pick for best-performing base metal in 2026.\nNot only does the red metal play a starring role in both the energy transition and the artificial intelligence narratives, it is also a market facing structural supply challenges.\nThe same can be said of both tin and aluminum, the other two bull stand-outs in the latest Reuters poll .\nBut there’s also a clear consensus that January’s explosive price rallies, which saw London Metal Exchange (LME) copper hit an all-time high of $14,527.50 per metric ton and tin an equally unprecedented $59,040 per ton, are unsustainable.\nMoreover, while most analysts are bullish pretty much across the LME board this year, they are a lot more cautious about 2027.\n\nReuters base metal poll results\nWinners\nCopper, tin and aluminum are in for significant gains of 20%, 16% and 12% respectively relative to 2025 average prices, according to the median forecast of analysts contributing to the latest poll.\nAll three have positive demand profiles thanks to their core positioning in both energy transition and the internet-of-things mega-trends.\nCopper is still the electrical conductor of choice, tin the solder that bridges the physical and virtual worlds and aluminum the cross-cutting metal for anything that needs light-weighting.\nAll three also face supply constraints.\nCopper mine supply is already struggling to keep up with smelter demand. Tin supply is heavily concentrated and overly dependent on frontier mining jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar.\nAluminum is seeing a race to build new smelter capacity as the world realizes that production growth in China, the world’s largest producer, has ground to a halt as output runs up against the government’s mandated 45-million-ton per year capacity cap.\nAnalysts expect both copper and tin to register supply deficits this year, while aluminum is on course for a marginal surplus of 80,000 tons, shifting to a deficit in 2027.\n\nFitch Solutions’ BMI upgrades industrial metals forecasts\n\nLosers\nThe outlook for nickel, lead and zinc is much more subdued. The median forecast for 2026 represents modest price gains of just 4-5% for all three.\nNeither lead nor zinc feature much in the new energy and internet technology stories. Indeed, lead is likely to be a net loser from the shift away from internal combustion engines to new energy vehicles, which use smaller lead-acid batteries.\nThe lead market is also clearly over-supplied judging by the elevated stocks held in LME warehouses and is the only metal that analysts have marked down since the last poll in October.\nZinc defied bear expectations in 2025 but analysts seem to be betting that stronger mine output finally translates into more refined metal in 2026.\nNickel, meanwhile, has lost much of its previous electric buzz as Chinese automakers shift to non-nickel battery chemistries and Indonesia struggles to brake its runaway production growth.\nSpeculative frenzy\nThe latest poll serves to put January’s frenetic rallies in context.\nThe very highest copper forecast from 31 analysts is for LME cash metal to average $13,250 per ton in 2026, compared with a current price of $13,283. The median forecast is an average of $11,975 – a record poll high, but a long way short of last month’s melt-up above $14,000.\nThe highest tin call among 16 forecasts is an average of $47,000, already taken out in the January price spike.\nIt’s a similar story with both nickel and zinc, while aluminum and lead got to within touching distance of the highest forecasts last month.\n\nColumn: China’s surging exports a sign of global metals turmoil\n\nThe collective view seems to be that January’s super-charged price performance will inevitably generate a reaction in the form of reduced physical buying in what are still industry-rooted markets.\nThat caution is even more apparent when it comes to 2027.\nOnly lead is expected to register any price gain to the tune of a modest 3% relative to this year.\nAluminum, copper and nickel prices are expected to be flat year-on-year, while tin and zinc prices are forecast to decline by 4% from 2026 levels.\nSpeculators may well disagree and January has shown the outsize impact of investment flows on price in what are finite physical markets.\nBut if speculators push metal prices too high too fast, global manufacturers will react by halting buying, reducing the amount of metal used or even developing totally new material inputs.\nGiven the current hype around the metals complex, these poll forecasts point to growing tension between what investors think metals are worth and their value to those that actually use them to make things.\n(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)\n(Editing by Marguerita Choy)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}