金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券表示，印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额。全球煤炭供需平衡可能在26年开始被打破，供给收缩需求抬升，看好上升周期。该机构指，印尼2025年对中国出口2.1亿吨，同比下降10.6%，占中国进口煤炭4.9亿吨的42.9%，占中国进口动力煤3.7亿吨的56.8%，印尼产量收缩最直接的就是导致中国进口量继续收缩。预计2026年进口量可能继续保持同比下降的态势，全年预计4.5亿左右，下降约4000万吨。整体价格预计2026年国内均价在国内供给平稳、海外进口略降，需求端稳中有恢复的背景下，均价结束4年下降周期，恢复增长。该机构续指，印尼大幅削减产量配额，有望加速全球煤价进入上升周期。核心关注未来5年有确定性量及价格弹性的公司。
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