Assessing Sino Biopharmaceutical’s Valuation After Positive TQA3605 Phase II Hepatitis B Trial Results

Simply Wall St.

Feb 08

AdvertisementWhy the TQA3605 trial update matters for Sino Biopharmaceutical Sino Biopharmaceutical (SEHK:1177) has drawn investor attention after reporting that its HBV candidate TQA3605 met the ...

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All active dose groups reached around...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK1191":"制药","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","IE00BZ08YS42.EUR":"GUINNESS BEST OF CHINA \"C\" (EUR) ACC","01177":"中国生物制药","BK1589":"北水核心资产","HK0000165453.HKD":"华夏精选大中华科技基金 A类港币","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","IE00BZ08YT58.USD":"GUINNESS BEST OF CHINA \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ08YR35.GBP":"GUINNESS BEST OF CHINA \"C\" (GBP) ACC","BK1515":"抗疫概念"},"translate_title":"在TQA3605 II期乙肝试验结果积极后评估中国生物制药的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"01177":0.9},"content_text":"AdvertisementWhy the TQA3605 trial update matters for Sino Biopharmaceutical Sino Biopharmaceutical (SEHK:1177) has drawn investor attention after reporting that its HBV candidate TQA3605 met the primary endpoint in a Phase II trial, combining with nucleos(t)ide analogues for chronic hepatitis B patients. The randomized, double blind, placebo controlled study enrolled 122 subjects and compared several TQA3605 dose groups with a nucleos(t)ide analogue only control arm. All active dose groups reached around 90% of patients with HBV DNA below 20 IU/mL after 24 weeks. According to the company, this virologic response rate was meaningfully higher than in the control group, with a p-value below 0.0001. For you as an investor, that statistic highlights a clinically strong separation between combination therapy and the current standard in this trial setting. Safety is often just as important as efficacy in drug development. Here, overall adverse reactions for TQA3605 were described as broadly similar to the control, with most treatment emergent events at Grade 1 or 2 severity and no new safety signals reported. These results come against a backdrop of considerable unmet need. The company cites around 86 million hepatitis B virus carriers in the PRC, including about 30 million chronic HBV patients, with diagnosis and treatment rates of 18.7% and 11% respectively. Chronic HBV is also a major cancer risk factor, with more than 80% of hepatocellular carcinoma cases linked to long term infection. Existing nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy can suppress the virus for many patients, but non responders, partial responders and long term treatment requirements remain ongoing issues. TQA3605 is described as a core protein allosteric modulator with activity across multiple HBV genotypes and no cross resistance with nucleos(t)ide analogues. The company also notes that no HBV focused CpAM has yet been approved for sale globally, so this program sits in a relatively early therapeutic class. The once daily oral dosing regimen may matter practically if the drug advances, because convenience can influence adherence and real world outcomes. For now, TQA3605 remains in the clinical stage, with more detailed data expected at future international conferences. See our latest analysis for Sino Biopharmaceutical. At a share price of HK$6.48, the stock has a modest 1.89% year to date share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of 121.20% and 3 year total shareholder return of 52.81% suggest stronger momentum over a longer stretch despite weaker recent monthly moves. If progress on TQA3605 has you thinking about where the next big medical breakthrough could come from, it might be a good moment to scan our list of 105 healthcare AI stocks and see what else stands out. With a HK$6.48 share price, a value score of 4, double digit annual revenue and net income growth, and a wide gap to analyst targets, is Sino Biopharmaceutical still mispriced, or is the market already taking future growth into account? Preferred P/E of 26.4x: Is it justified? At a last close of HK$6.48, Sino Biopharmaceutical trades on a P/E of 26.4x, which lines up closely with the peer average but sits well above the wider Hong Kong pharmaceuticals industry. The P/E multiple compares the current share price with earnings per share. It effectively reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each unit of earnings. For a research led pharma group with HBV, oncology and other specialty franchises, this often captures how the market views the durability and quality of current profits, as well as expectations for future pipelines translating into earnings. Here, the picture is mixed. On one hand, 1177 screens as good value relative to similar peers, with its 26.4x P/E roughly in line with a 26.5x peer average. On the other hand, the same 26.4x looks expensive against the broader Hong Kong pharmaceuticals industry at 13.3x. This suggests the market is assigning a premium to its earnings profile that others in the sector do not currently share and might only move closer to if sentiment or fundamentals shift in its favor. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Sino Biopharmaceutical Result: Price-to-earnings of 26.4x (ABOUT RIGHT) However, you still have to factor in risks, including clinical or regulatory setbacks for TQA3605 and any shift in sentiment around higher P/E stocks. Find out about the key risks to this Sino Biopharmaceutical narrative. Another angle on value: DCF vs earnings multiple While the 26.4x P/E suggests Sino Biopharmaceutical is slightly expensive versus its 23x fair ratio, our DCF model points the other way, with a fair value estimate of HK$17.29 against a HK$6.48 share price. When one method flags a premium and the other flags a discount, which signal do you put more weight on? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 1177 Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Sino Biopharmaceutical for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 237 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Sino Biopharmaceutical Narrative If you see this story differently or simply prefer to rely on your own work, you can pull the same data together and shape a complete view in just a few minutes, then Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Sino Biopharmaceutical. Looking for more investment ideas? If Sino Biopharmaceutical is on your radar, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not chasing ideas after they move.  Target potential mispricings by scanning our list of 237 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with more attractive price tags. Prioritise resilience first and check out 327 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability and risk controls. Get ahead of the crowd by reviewing our screener containing 545 high quality undiscovered gems before they land firmly in the spotlight.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}