【券商聚焦】中金公司:龙头猪企因内生动能更强、分红潜力更大

金吾财讯
Feb 06

金吾财讯 | 中金公司认为,随着资本、防疫、猪价三大红利减弱,叠加规模化水平提升放缓,中国猪企已开启成长新范式:向内求专注成本精进,联农带农优化存量资源,技术先行海外扩张。该机构判断,龙头猪企因内生动能更强、分红潜力更大,龙头兼具成长与价值属性。对于产业新阶段:三大红利减弱、规模化率高位,龙头成长动能更强。国内方面:1)“资本、防疫、猪价”三大红利减弱,猪企成长从向外看的资本驱动,回归向内求的成本驱动,小猪企跨越式增长窗口接近关闭;2)行业规模化水平提升放缓,猪企联农带农带动存量资源升级,较新建产能空间更大;3)屠宰业开启产业整合、渠道转型与产品升级,猪企纵向延伸存机遇。海外方面:越南、泰国、菲律宾总需求量超1亿头,存技术输出空间。对于成长新范式:降本提价、联农带农、海外扩张。1)降本提价:育种、管理、财务三端降本,屠宰增值与肉质优化提价。成本端,种猪等科技投入提升、原料采购与配方研发、智能化技术和全方位防疫标准化复制、投资过峰后折旧与财务费用下降将贡献降本新空间;价格端,屠宰产能利用率提升贡献盈利,品种改良提升售价;2)联农带农:猪企输出管理、科技与规模优势,开拓量利新增量。合作放养有望消纳猪企母猪效率提升带来的产能冗余;母猪代养实现强绑定、轻资产和高效益扩张。3)海外扩张:技术输出助力海外增效,分享提质、扩量两端收益。

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