Appian (APPN) Valuation Revisited As Weak Share Returns Contrast With Revenue Growth Potential

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Feb 05

AdvertisementWhy Appian Is Back On Investors’ Radar Appian (APPN) has drawn fresh attention after a stretch of weak share performance, with the stock showing negative returns over the past month, past...

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At a last close of US$26.07, the low code software company is being weighed against its reported US$690.755 million in revenue and a net loss of US$7.311 million, as investors reassess what they are paying for its automation platform. See our latest analysis for Appian. For now, momentum has been fading, with a 7 day share price return of 13.7% decline and a 30 day share price return of 22.8% decline feeding into a 1 year total shareholder return of 26.3% decline and a 5 year total shareholder return of 88.1% decline, as investors weigh Appian’s revenue base against continued net losses and reassess how much growth and execution risk they are comfortable with at around US$26 per share. If Appian has you rethinking your software exposure, this could be a good moment to see what else is out there in high growth tech and AI names via high growth tech and AI stocks. With Appian trading at about US$26 against reported revenue of US$690.755 million and a modest intrinsic discount, are investors overlooking an opportunity here, or is the current price already building in the company’s future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 36.4% Undervalued With Appian closing at $26.07 against a narrative fair value of $41, the gap between market price and this widely followed view is hard to ignore.  Broad enterprise demand for application modernization and workflow automation is accelerating, with AI seen as a catalyst that dramatically lowers modernization costs and complexity. This is described as positioning Appian's platform for increased adoption, larger deal sizes, and improved revenue growth over the coming years.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is behind that confidence in higher usage, larger contracts, and richer margins? The narrative leans heavily on recurring revenue, expanding profitability, and a future earnings multiple that assumes real progress. The exact mix of growth, margins, and discount rate might surprise you. Result: Fair Value of $41 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are still meaningful risks, including larger rivals pushing competing low code and AI tools, as well as ongoing customer down sells that could pressure recurring revenue strength. Find out about the key risks to this Appian narrative.  Build Your Own Appian Narrative If this narrative does not quite fit how you see Appian, or you would rather test your own assumptions directly in the data, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Appian research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Appian has sharpened your focus on where capital works hardest, do not stop here, your next opportunity could be sitting in plain sight.  Target potential mispricings by scanning these 868 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your return expectations and risk tolerance. Ride emerging trends in automation and data by checking out these 27 AI penny stocks that match your appetite for growth potential. Hunt for income opportunities by reviewing these 11 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may fit a more cash focused approach.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}