开年以来，美股市场上演了一场风格大切换的戏码。以英伟达、微软等科技巨头为代表的纳斯达克指数陷入持续震荡调整，而道琼斯工业平均指数却凭借传统蓝筹股的集体爆发逆势创下历史新高，被市场戏称为 “老登股” 的传统价值股正成为资金追捧的新宠。

　　从板块表现看，有色与金属板块领涨，巴里克黄金近1月涨幅达50%，反映出市场对避险资产和大宗商品的强烈需求；能源板块里，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙等石油巨头录得大涨；军工板块更是直接受益于全球局势紧张，洛克希德马涨超20%。消费与医疗板块的星巴克、强生等稳健标的也录得双位数涨幅。

　　这种风格切换近期也同步传导至 A 股市场，除了有色贵金属、煤炭外，贵州茅台等消费龙头也重拾升势。

　　“老登股”们躁动的背后，是以下驱动逻辑：一方面，地缘政治冲突的持续升级推高了能源、军工等板块的战略价值，避险买盘大幅回流；另一方面，部分科技巨头发布的业绩指引不及预期，让资金从高估值成长股撤离，转向拥有稳定现金流和高股息的传统蓝筹。此外，美国通胀粘性仍存，市场对降息时点的预期后移，也促使资金更青睐具备抗通胀属性的价值资产。

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