Wall Street back on board after gold’s strong recovery, Main Street bullish but cautious with payrolls and CPI on deck

Kitco

Feb 06

(Kitco News) – After riding out the last waves of last week’s nausea-inducing drop, gold began to trade more like a grown-up precious metal once again this week, and by Friday’s close, it looked ready...

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After a quick push up to $4,844 by 7:00 p.m., gold was trading around $4,640 one hour later, and after a failure to reclaim $4,700, the price broke through near-term support, falling all the way to the weekly low around $4,450 per ounce by 1:30 a.m. Monday morning. But as is so often the case, the sharp drop was followed by a bounce of almost equal velocity, with spot gold rising to the very edge of $4,800 by 7:45 a.m. Eastern. The North American session was spent reinforcing $4,600 as solid support, setting up another sharp move higher at the Asian open, which saw gold rally above $4,850 by 8:15 p.m., and to $4,935 by 3:30 a.m.It was now North American traders’ turn to help carve out what proved to be the week’s highest trading range, with spot gold managing to hold above $4,900 all day, after which Asian traders pushed gold prices to the edge of $5,100 overnight. These prices proved too expensive for North America, however, and spot gold fell from $5,054 at 8:45 a.m. down to a double-test of support at $4,900 just before 1:00 p.m. This inspired traders to make another run at reclaiming $5,000 in the late afternoon, but a double-top near $5,020 just after 7:30 p.m. Wednesday evening drove gold back down to $4,800 by around 10:00 p.m. The channel then narrowed once again, until sustained weakness into the North American close saw gold prices fall to $4,682 by 7:00 p.m. for the late-week low. But spot gold wasted little time reclaiming support at $4,800, and Friday saw gold behave more like its regular self – bullish but non-parabolic – with the yellow metal grinding steadily higher to close out the week just $35 shy of 5,000 per ounce. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street with renewed faith in gold’s near-term strength, while Main Street investors held their bullish majority, but were still feeling the sting of last week’s losses.“Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “The pullbacks in both gold and silver were overdone over the past week. Fundamentally, nothing has changed for gold. All that changed was the price. This was a classic case of profit-taking and consolidation. It is therefore an opportunity to buy well in the midst of a bull market. Embrace it.”“It’s interesting to note April gold has indeed traded all three directions this week,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Monday: Down as much as $322. Tuesday through Wednesday: up $690. Thursday through Friday morning: Sideways in the weekly range.”“As for next week, more of the same,” Newsom said. “From a technical point of view, the argument could be made April gold is in the middle of a bear flag pattern, and if this holds true, and flags fly at half mast, we should expect another leg down. Fundamentally, global chaos continues to reign and is getting worse. Long-term investors and central banks are likely using this week’s break as an opportunity to buy. If the contract moves sideways between this week’s low of $4,423.20 and high of $5,113.90, traders will be looking for a breakout in either (both?) directions.”“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “The drawdown into the weekly open was intense, but it’s the response that keeps me on the bullish side. The 5k level is still an issue in spot and we haven’t seen acceptance above that yet, so I’d be careful chasing developed momentum, but I’m still bullish and looking to add exposure on pullbacks.”“Higher, on the assumption we have seen most of the deleveraging across markets, especially in crypto markets and silver,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “I expect more back and forth for a few weeks; that would be normal after such a large drop. But the bias will be to the upside as the main drivers of gold remain, and the sell-off has presented bystanders with an opportunity to buy.”Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, told Kitco News that this recent dramatic selloff in precious metals was different from the last one – and less significant.“One of the biggest things that I saw, and the difference between the last metals rally in 2011, was that the more professional traders were moving off to the sidelines [this time],” he said. “Especially in silver, for instance, as the market started to break above $50, they started unwinding and looking for this blow-off rally. But at the same time, a lot of traders that aren't really as focused in metals – or even in commodities – started to get into futures, coming from the sidelines, and buying options.”“I think the play happened where the options were just so expensive, and margins were already starting to get pretty expensive, so the strike prices just had to be so high. There was big concentration in a lot of those higher strike prices, and it pushed the market to go up higher, and it was this positive feedback loop where people were just buying more options and building into those strike prices, building into open interest. The market makers, at the same time, obviously had to hedge the delta, so there was more and more buying behind that.”“And it's not just on the future side,” Pavilonis added. “Now you can trade this through ETFs, daily options, weekly options, and so on. As those options started to come to expiration, I think the market was already trading above some of these high-concentrated strike prices, so once those strikes started to come off the board, the hedges started to come off the board, and I think that started to create some volatility. Maybe that was the first pullback; I saw that happening.”The other thing Pavilonis saw happening around the same time was a significant selloff in copper.“Copper blew out and had this spike,” he said. “Maybe somebody got blown out, we’ll probably hear about it weeks from now, or somebody took a big hit, and the market moved 50 cents in an hour. It was one of the biggest moves I've seen in copper. It wasn't anything compared to silver or gold, but I think that was starting to break things in the market, and that caused a lot of volatility. We saw a secondary spike in the markets. And it wasn't as strong, and I think that nervousness started to hit and we started to roll back.”But as of Friday, Pavilonis said the charts look good, and he’s bullish for next week. “We got into some pretty good support levels here,” he said. “We're just waiting to see if this is real support. I think we'll figure that out by the middle of next week.”“Fundamentally, I don't think anything's changed,” he added. “Maybe the market just got ahead of itself and we saw a washout, really just cleaning out the weak hands.”Looking ahead, Pavilonis expects to see the precious metals trend higher once again – but not straight up – and he’s watching support between $4,660 and $4,700.“I think potentially, especially in gold, we found support,” he said. “But I don't think we're going to see a parabolic move like we saw; I think it's going to be more of a normal trade. A lot of the weak hands got stopped out, and margins are a little bit higher now.”“I still think it's going to be a slow grind, higher,” he said. “The premise behind the trade has not changed. People want to get away from the dollar, people want to get away from the U.S., put their money in something else.”This week, 18 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street reflecting renewed optimism after gold’s solid rebound. 12 experts, or 67%, expected to see gold prices move back above $5,000 during the week ahead, while only two, or 11%, predicted a decline. The remaining four analysts, representing 22% of the total, saw the risks relatively even next week.Meanwhile, 329 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors cooling to the yellow metal without giving up altogether. 210 retail traders, or 64%, looked for gold prices to rise higher next week, while another 62, or 19%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 57 investors, representing 17% of the total, expected prices to trend sideways during the week ahead.While next week isn’t the busiest in terms of economic data releases, several have the potential to move markets.Sunday evening will see Japan elect its next government, which could materially impact the Yen, along with global currency and sovereign debt markets.Then on Tuesday morning, markets will receive U.S. Retail Sales for December. The delayed Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and U.S. Existing Home Sales for January.The week wraps up with U.S. CPI for January on Friday morning.“Ahead of the weekend, gold found support in the cash market near $4655, a little above Tuesday’s low,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “I like it higher next week, and the key may be a close above $5000, which it has not done since Jan 29.  This week’s high was around $5091. A move above $5140 would suggest the dramatic downside correction may be over.”Jesse Colombo, independent precious metals analyst and founder of the BubbleBubble Report, told Kitco News that he sees last week’s steep precious metals selloff as nothing more than a reaction to the blow-off rally of late January.“I was expecting this to happen, and I wrote about it,” Colombo said, who predicted silver would top out at $121 per ounce back when it was trading at $79. “It rallied right up to that, based on the measured move principle. Once it hit there, I put out a warning. I said, ‘I'm still super bullish on silver in the long run, but in the short run, it is a little bit overheated, and I'm concerned about a pullback. It doesn't affect bullion long-term, unleveraged bullion holders or investors, but if you're trading with leverage, it's time to take caution.’”“Sure enough, literally the next couple days, that Friday, boom, we got slammed down.”Colombo’s target for gold was $5,200 per ounce, which the market overshot by around $400 before giving back around $1,000. But despite the extreme volatility, Colombo said the sky is not falling.“We're back only to where we were in mid-January,” he said. “A lot of people are just ‘chicken littles’, and they're worrying this is it, this is the top. No, I still believe we are in a secular bull market in all the precious metals that has at least another seven to eight years to go.”Colombo said that the key drivers that took gold through dozens of all-time highs remain in place. “None of that has changed,” he said. “This was just a technical move, and it was a move based on sentiment. None of the fundamentals changed.”“I know a lot of people are citing Trump's Fed pick as being the catalyst for that pullback,” he added. “But the fact is, I was able to see more than a month in advance that $121 was where silver was going to top out at, means that it was already baked into the cake; there was going to be some sort of a pullback once it hit that target.”Colombo now likes what he sees from the metals complex across the board, with silver, gold, the platinum group metals, mining socks and ETFs all staging significant recoveries and trading above key support levels.“I think this is good,” he said. “What happened yesterday and early this morning was that these precious metals finally became oversold. I was waiting for them to become oversold according to the Williams %R oscillator in order to more confidently believe that they're ready to rebound. We got that reading with the bearish action that happened in the a.m., so now I feel good about what's happening. I think the worst is over.”Colombo said he can tell sentiment among retail metals investors is bad right now, which he takes as a contrarian bullish signal.“I see a sense of negativity among precious metals investors; there's a lot of fear,” he said. “That's what you want to see in order to feel confident that there's a bottom, or that there's going to be a balance. When you start to see that fear among retail investors, that's usually a sign that the pendulum is going to swing in the other direction. Initially, there was hope, last Friday or Monday, that it's going to bounce back quickly. Then over the past few days, I noticed a lot more negativity. That corresponds with the oversold conditions, and we're right here at support. From a contrarian perspective, I like this setup.”Looking ahead, Colombo said he’d like to see the metals close somewhere near their daily highs.“Ideally, I would love to see gold close above $5,000 [in Comex futures], that would be really important for sentiment, that's a key level,” he said. “I think that's very realistic and plausible. That would be a feather in our cap, if we could get above $5,000 close for the weekend. Assuming that's the case. I believe the momentum is to the upside right now. I like the setup.”Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, told Kitco News that he sees gold prices trending lower next week.“Events at the end of last week unfolded too quickly,” he said. “By the close of last week, the collapse had reached historic proportions, leaving scars on the market at the start of February. Formally, we see the week closing in positive territory and an impressive rebound of $550 from Monday's lows. It is also worth mentioning that the price reached these levels for the first time just two weeks ago.”“Nevertheless, we remain in the bear camp, assuming that the three-year bull market has already been broken,” Kuptsikevich said. “We may see attempts to grow and even break through 5000, but we expect that too many will sell gold at these levels.”Analysts at CPM Group issued a Buy recommendation on Friday, with an initial target price of $5,400 between February 9 – 20, 2026, and a stop loss at $4,800“Gold prices are expected by CPM to remain volatile with an upside bias over the next month or two at least,” they said. “That said, the volatility could push prices sharply lower, as it did earlier this week. Prices may consolidate between $4,400 and $5,200 over the next two weeks, but are vulnerable to a spike much lower, with $4,300, $4,000, and lower prices within the technical realm of possibility.Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, believes gold prices will climb higher next week.“In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. In a Medium time frame: The break above 31482 brought in $2,478.2 of strength. The trade above 32214 brought in $2,405.4 of strength. The trade above 32236 brought in $2,403.2 of strength. The trade above 32392 projected this up $115 (+)—we attained $2,387.6. The trade above 33411 brought in $2,285.7 of strength. The trade above 33850 brought in $2,241.8 of strength. The trade above 34186 brought in $2,208.2 of strength. The break above 35640 brought in $2,062.8 of strength. The trade above 36658 brought in $1,961.0 of strength. The trade above 37143 brought in $1,912.5 of strength. The break above 37725 brought in $1,854.3 of strength. The trade above 38828 brought in $1,744.0 of strength. These are OFF HOLD.”“On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion at 56192 with a 56268 high and rolled over $2,103.6. The break below 52138 (+26 tics per/hour) projected this down $488 (+) max—we attained $790.6. On 1/30 we left a minor bearish reversal above—we have come off $679.7 from the 51029 open. These are OFF HOLD. The break back above 45201 (+4 per/hour) has brought in $593.8 of strength. The trade above 47972  (+9 tics per/hour) has brought in $319.7 of strength. These are ON HOLD. The trade below 51080 (+98 p/h) brought in $438.0 of pressure. The trade below 48405 (+9 tics per/hour) brought in $182.6 of pressure. Decent trade above 48705 (-45 per/hour) will project this up $245 minimum, $910 (+) maximum; but if we break above decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure. This is coming in fairly strong on the day.”And Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said the rally in the U.S. dollar index over the past couple of weeks has dented bullish enthusiasm in gold and silver. “Solid rebounds in the U.S. stock indexes overnight are also pulling some buying interest away from the safe-haven metals,” he said.“Technically, April gold futures price action last week formed a big and bearish ‘key reversal’ down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place,” Wyckoff said. “Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $4,423.20. First resistance is seen at $5,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $5,045.00. First support is seen at $4,800.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,670.00.”At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,964.62 per ounce for a gain of 2.70% on the week and 3.85% on the day.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}