Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk

Dow Jones
Feb 09
 

0035 GMT - Uncertainty over AI impacts and market sentiment toward tech-related stocks keep Macquarie analysts cautious on REA Group despite the Australian real-estate advertiser's solid medium-term earnings outlook. The analyst tell clients in a note that the company's medium-term earnings appear intact following its 1H results. Macquarie's forecasts are for compound annual EPS growth of more than 15% through FY 2028, which includes the newly announced A$200 million buyback. However, the analysts are cautious on where the market will end up valuing the stock against the current backdrop. Macquarie cuts its target price 4.8% to A$200.00 and stays neutral on the stock. Shares rise 1.5% to A$170.67. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

0003 GMT - UBS reminds Australian gold producers to be prepared for any prolonged pullbacks in gold prices, as mining costs drift higher. Gold companies have been increasingly "chasing incremental, lower-margin material and production growth albeit at higher unit costs" to take advantage of record-high metal prices, UBS says. "While many gold miners are protected in the short/medium term by puts struck at very strong prices, we continue to watch the recent volatility in gold," the bank says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

2355 GMT - Fund manager GQG Partners loses a bull in Morgan Stanley, which cites risks to its flows over the next 12-18 months. GQG had six consecutive months of net outflows totaling US$12 billion in 2H of 2025. "Our tracking at Feb. 3 indicates majority of strategies remain below benchmarks on a 3-year and 5-year basis," says analyst Andrei Stadnik. "Given this, we think outflows will persist in the near term." MS downgrades GQG to equal-weight, from overweight, and lowers its price target by 34% to A$1.75/share. Its earnings forecasts fall 7% and 14% for FY 2026 and FY 2027, respectively. "Despite offering value at 8x FY 2026 price-to-earnings, we see few positive catalysts near term," MS says. GQG is down 2.7% at A$1.65. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2346 GMT - MS finds reasons to like and dislike HMC Capital's strategic partnership with KKR to build out its energy transition platform. "Some investors may have considered the Energy Transition strategy an overhang for HMC," analyst Simon Chan says. Securing KKR as a partner has eased risks of a FY 2026 EPS downgrade, MS says. It also means HMC gets a return on capital. However, MS notes the transaction is almost akin to a structured financing deal. "It is not structured like a typical JV/externally managed fund, whereby HMC would earn a management fee as a percentage of assets, development fees, and rights that rank equally between partners," MS says. KKR is guaranteed a 14%/year return. MS retains an equal-weight call on HMC, which is down 0.9% at A$3.885. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2312 GMT - CAR Group's bull at RBC says the vehicle advertiser's first-half result is boring, but in a good way. Against the backdrop of a volatile global equities market, analyst Wei-Weng Chen is cheered by what he calls an uneventful result. The stock has underperformed recently, so Chen expects the performance to be greeted positively by investors. He tells clients in a note that the December-half performance was largely in line with consensus across key financial metrics, with full-year guidance reiterated. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and A$41.00 target price on the stock, which is up 9.4% at A$26.79. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2119 GMT - The global selloff in software stocks has created a buying opportunity in DUG Technology, says Euroz Hartleys. DUG's share price has fallen 25% over the past two weeks. That's despite no specific news from the company or a deterioration in the stock's fundamentals. To analyst Declan Bonnick, DUG's share-price weakness "reflects an amplification of a broader market/U.S. software/software-as-a-service stock AI threat selloff." Euroz Hartleys considers the DUG investment case to be intact ahead of the company's 1H result on Feb. 26. It is grounded in contracted revenues. "Improving oil price sentiment could provide additional tailwinds, given DUG's exposure to oil and gas activity," Euroz Hartleys says. It retains a speculative buy call and A$3.10/share price target on DUG, which ended last week at A$1.61. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2107 GMT - REA Group gets a new bull at Jefferies on the stock's "excessive" decline over the past six months. Analyst Roger Samuel raises his recommendation to buy from hold. He tells clients in a note that the News Corp-controlled property advertiser can deliver double-digit yield growth without significantly increasing its marketing or R&D spending. Besides, he sees it as less likely than other comparable companies to be disrupted by AI. Samuel reckons the share-price decline of about 30% over six months "is excessive and presents an attractive entry point." The stock is at A$168.10 ahead of the open. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2104 GMT - The outlook for Charter Hall Retail REIT in 2H and FY27 is shaping up very well, says Jefferies. That's because the Australian reit has significant firepower that it can deploy across its main business and the Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund, or CCRF. Analyst Andrew Dodds points out that CCRF raised an additional A$700 million of external equity in 1H FY26, and currently maintains zero gearing compared to its 30% target. That provides it with more than A$750 million of acquisition capacity. "With Charter Hall Retail REIT now trading at a 23% discount to net tangible assets and on a 7% dividend yield, we believe this doesn't reflect the income stability, earnings outlook and potential for future operating EPS upgrades," Jefferies says. It has a buy call on Charter Hall Retail REIT's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2050 GMT - HMC Capital's strategic partnership with KKR to build out its energy transition platform wouldn't have been Jefferies's first choice. KKR will invest up to A$603 million in the platform. "In our view, a traditional fund launch would have been preferable, given that the agreed format requires repayment of KKR's preferred equity (A$355 million) over seven years at 14% per annum," analyst Simon Fitzgerald says. Still, it's a reasonable plan B. KKR brings credibility to HMC's vision and is likely to improve the prospects for recycling capital at a later date, Jefferies says. KKR's investment will allow HMC to scale the existing platform, including the development of new battery storage and wind projects. Jefferies retains a buy call on HMC. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 08, 2026 23:00 ET (04:00 GMT)

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