By Adam Whittaker
BP is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter on Tuesday. Here is what you need to know:
PROFIT FORECAST: BP's underlying replacement-cost profit is expected at $1.55 billion, according to a company-compiled consensus. It booked $2.21 billion in the third quarter, and $1.2 billion in the same period in 2024. Underlying RC profit is BP's main profit metric and is similar to net income reported by U.S. oil companies.
BP's shares have outperformed British peer Shell over the year to date, jumping 10% to Shell's 1.75% rise. Shares have performed largely in line with the Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index over the same period.
--BP might use the opportunity to cut its quarterly buyback to zero ahead of new Chief Executive Meg O'Neill's arrival in April, RBC Capital Markets analysts Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani wrote. It maintained a $750 million buyback in November. The company has made cutting net debt one of its key targets and the weaker price outlook means scrapping the buyback is a logical step that would help make BP more investible over time, the analysts wrote.
--BP warned in its quarterly trading update that it would write down the value of its gas and low-carbon energy division by up to $5 billion. Investors will be looking at which specific assets booked impairments. The majority of the charge likely stems from its U.S. biogas business Archaea Energy, which BP bought in 2022, HSBC analyst Kim Fustier wrote.
--BP isn't expected to make major strategic announcements given it is only been a year since it updated its strategy. Instead, analysts expect greater emphasis on cost savings and capital efficiency. BP should upgrade its cost-saving target to between $8 billion and $10 billion through 2030, from a prior target of up to $5 billion by end-2027 relative to 2023, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth wrote in a recent note to clients.
Write to Adam Whittaker at adam.whittaker@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 09, 2026 06:07 ET (11:07 GMT)
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