Ampol (ASX:ALD) appears to be executing better than Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) in its fuel and convenience business, despite tobacco and weak fuel volumes remaining a drag, Jefferies said in a Feb. 6 note.

Stronger margins combined with elevated premium penetration should offset low-single-digit declines in retail fuel volumes, the note said. The improvement in January retail fuel margins should be an around AU$30 million tailwind for Viva Energy, offset by an around AU$5 million from lower fuel volumes and lower shop gross profit. The fuel margin tailwind is similar for Ampol.

Ampol said it expects replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of about AU$1.44 billion and RCOP earnings before interest and taxes of about AU$945 million in 2025.

Viva Energy's lack of disclosure of its fiscal 2025 earnings guidance likely signals that its EBITDA is probably close to market consensus expectations of AU$696.4 million, Jefferies said.

The investment firm reaffirmed a buy rating on Ampol with a price target of AU$34 and a hold rating on Viva Energy with a price target of AU$2.

Ampol's shares gained about 3% in recent Monday trade, while Viva Energy shares added 2%.