Canada Rate Outlook Hinges on USMCA's Review, BOC Minutes Signal -- Market Talk

Dow Jones
15 hours ago

1541 ET - There are "hints" of an easing bias among Bank of Canada officials as relayed in the minutes summarizing recent rate-policy deliberations, says Michael Davenport of Oxford Economics. The economist says senior officials appear content to hold the policy rate at 2.25%. "But if the outlook deteriorates, the BOC appears ready to cut rates further," Davenport says. He adds the minutes make clear the rate outlook hinges on the outcome of the USMCA review. This week, USTR Jameson Greer criticized Canada for pursuing policies that he argues will make renewal difficult. In the event USMCA talks sour or US tariffs on Canadian exports increase, Davenport expects BOC to hold the policy rate at 2.25% for longer, or perhaps cut by no more than a half-percentage point. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 11, 2026 15:41 ET (20:41 GMT)

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