A Look At Nuvation Bio’s Valuation As Safusidenib SIGMA Trial Advances To Phase 3

Simply Wall St.

Feb 11

Nuvation Bio (NUVB) shares are in focus after the company advanced its SIGMA trial of safusidenib to Phase 3, expanding patient eligibility and enrollment in high risk IDH1-mutant glioma maintenance ...

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See our latest analysis for Nuvation Bio. The SIGMA trial update lands after a sharp 30 day share price return of around a 30% decline and a year to date share price return of a 34% decline, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is very large and the 3 year total shareholder return is more than 2.5x. This suggests long term holders have still seen substantial gains while recent momentum has cooled. If this glioma update has you thinking more broadly about oncology and biotech, it could be worth seeing what our screener flags as 26 healthcare AI stocks right now. With Nuvation Bio trading at US$5.64 and at a significant discount to its US$11.89 analyst price target and modeled intrinsic value, is the market overlooking the Phase 3 potential here or already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 45% Undervalued At a last close of $5.64 against a widely followed fair value of $10.25, the core narrative backs a sizeable valuation gap that hinges on future oncology execution.  Advancement of safusidenib into a pivotal Phase III high grade IDH1 mutant glioma maintenance study, targeting a population underserved by existing therapies, could position the company to tap into a durable brain tumor market and add a second meaningful revenue pillar that has the potential to scale earnings beyond IBTROZI.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of growth profile and margin shift would support that valuation gap, and what sort of earnings multiple is baked into 2028? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue expansion, a swing toward positive profitability and a premium pricing of those earnings that you might usually associate with fast growing sectors. Result: Fair Value of $10.25 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on IBTROZI continuing to build globally and safusidenib remaining on track, with trial timing, competition, and ex US access all potential spoilers. Find out about the key risks to this Nuvation Bio narrative.  Build Your Own Nuvation Bio Narrative If you are not fully on board with this storyline or simply prefer to lean on your own work, you can pull the same data, tweak the assumptions and Do it your way in just a few minutes. A great starting point for your Nuvation Bio research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you want to broaden your watchlist beyond Nuvation Bio, use the Simply Wall St screener to spot new opportunities before they are crowded.  Spot potential turnarounds early by scanning for beaten down opportunities with stronger fundamentals using our 26 elite penny stocks with strong financials. Zero in on quality at a discount by filtering for companies that our models flag as 52 high quality undervalued stocks. Prioritise resilience by focusing on companies highlighted in our 82 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial strength and risk checks.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Nuvation Bio might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}