花旗:料大宗商品价格上升利好基础物料 车企及二线电池商承压

智通财经
Feb 09

智通财经APP获悉,花旗发布研报称,大宗商品价格已大幅上升,并似乎在较高水平整固,该行分析有关对内地各板块的影响。正面而言,基础物料行业是主要受惠者,尤其是铝、铜及锂供应商;该行予中国铝业(02600)、中国宏桥(01378)及紫金矿业(02899)“买入”评级,亦看好纯铜企业,如五矿资源(01208)、洛阳钼业(03993)及江西铜业股份(00358) 。此外,黄金珠宝商将受惠于金价上升,而铜价上升亦令覆铜板(CCL)生产商的毛利率得以扩张,如建滔积层板(01888)。


负面而言,汽车制造商将因物料清单成本上升而受压,该行料大众市场的BEV及PHEv单车成本将分别增加约6,565元及4,310元人民币。行业中,小鹏汽车-W(09868)及广汽集团(02238)因规模较小及平均售价较低,更易受影响;相反,比亚迪股份(01211)及吉利汽车(00175)规模较大,有能力将超过50%的成本升幅转嫁予上游供应商。


另外,该行预期电池行业的二线公司将面临短期压力,但宁德时代(03750)具议价能力,且旗下江西锂云母矿预计将于今年次季复产,比同业更具防御性。该行认为储能系统销售将面临利润率削减,尤其是今年次季,对行业开启为期90天的负面催化剂观察。在太阳能行业中,组件制造商较易受银成本上升的影响,银约占其生产成本30%,可能压缩其利润率。而在中国的电网设备制造商中,平高电气(600312.SH) 对铜及铝成本增加最为敏感。

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