大行评级丨美银:预测今明两年香港楼价涨幅介乎10%至15%,看好长实集团、信和置业等

中金财经
Feb 11

  美银证券发表研报指,香港发展商已将今明两年15%至20%交易额增长计入股价,该行预测今明两年的楼价涨幅介乎10%至15%。但认为有两大主要风险,包括香港金管局已表示进一步下调最优惠利率空间有限,而香港银行的五年期抵押贷款利率优惠将于4月底到期。若债券市场在2026年底前两次减息未能实现,银行可能会恢复浮动利房贷贷款方案。同时,2025年首九个月香港家庭月入中位数停滞不前,及2025年批准的移民签证数目按年下降,若情况持续,最终可能限制楼价进一步上涨的潜力。发展商方面,该行看好长实集团信和置业,因其盈利对楼价增长的敏感度较高。收租股则偏好太古地产恒隆地产,因股息率较高且内地奢侈品零售具韧性。   

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