金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，原奶价格逐步筑底。1月29日，国内主产区生鲜乳均价3.04元/公斤（同比-2.9%、月度环比+0.3%），25H2以来基本止跌，持续在3.02~3.05元/公斤区间波动，释放出较强的筑底信号。我们判断2026年奶价有望步入上行区间：1）供给端，规模牧场主动调整、社会牧场仍受亏损和收贮资金压力，叠加畜牧业周期反转，肉牛价格持续上涨，肉奶共振有望催化产能去化；2）需求端，多维度生育政策有望驱动消费边际改善，传统液奶升级、B端/深加工产品的成长性亦进一步明朗。
金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，原奶价格逐步筑底。1月29日，国内主产区生鲜乳均价3.04元/公斤（同比-2.9%、月度环比+0.3%），25H2以来基本止跌，持续在3.02~3.05元/公斤区间波动，释放出较强的筑底信号。我们判断2026年奶价有望步入上行区间：1）供给端，规模牧场主动调整、社会牧场仍受亏损和收贮资金压力，叠加畜牧业周期反转，肉牛价格持续上涨，肉奶共振有望催化产能去化；2）需求端，多维度生育政策有望驱动消费边际改善，传统液奶升级、B端/深加工产品的成长性亦进一步明朗。
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