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#经济学家称沃什面临两个巨大难点# 【#沃什上任在即#,流动性红利将终结?】伴随凯文·沃什接掌美联储主席的日程临近,有两大叙事中的谜团仍需厘清。
其一,沃什是否会坚定降息,还是一个伪装“鸽派”,事实“鹰派”?其二,沃什主张“缩表”,按常理将会推高长端利率,或与美国财政部的巨额发债需求产生冲突,金融资产的流动性红利是否随之终结?
沃什展现的观点能否转化为行动力呢?美联储前高级经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受第一财经记者专访时表示,沃什的理念听上去行云流水,但在现实中完全是知易行难。
“他面前起码有两个巨大的难点:一是金融圈的剧烈反弹,二是美国财政部的生存压力。”胡捷解释道,“沃什提出的理念和方向站得住脚,但具体的执行将是一个巨大的挑战。我认为,这个过程不仅会是渐进的,而且会是一个极其渐进的过程。”
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