Sanae Takaichi rolled the dice and won – what next?

cityam

Feb 09

TOKYO, JAPAN - FEBRUARY 8: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), reacts as she speaks to the media in front of a board displaying the names of LDP...

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Instead, it emerged with its seat count roughly halved. Lacking a coherent message and struggling to match Takaichi’s media presence, the alliance failed to persuade voters that it was a credible alternative government.Get weekly sparky insight and expert commentary on markets, entrepreneurship and innovation from CityAM’s Opinion Editor, delivered every Saturday.The scale of the ruling coalition’s victory is significant. A two-thirds majority in the lower house gives the government the ability to override the upper house on legislation. Even if the government lacks a majority in the upper chamber, it can still push through bills rejected there. In practical terms, this removes a major legislative bottleneck and gives Takaichi unusual room to manoeuvre for a Japanese prime minister.That room to manoeuvre is likely to be used quickly. Takaichi has sign","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LDP":"Cohen & Steers Ltd Duration Pref"},"translate_title":"Sanae Takaichi掷骰子赢了——接下来呢？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LDP":1},"content_text":"TOKYO, JAPAN - FEBRUARY 8: Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), reacts as she speaks to the media in front of a board displaying the names of LDP candidates at the LDP headquarters on general election day on February 08, 2026 in Tokyo, Japan. Voters across the country headed to polls today as Japan's Lower House election was held. (Photo by Kim Kyung-Hoon - Pool/Getty Images) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a commanding victory in a snap general election, clinching a two-thirds supermajority that signals a new, more assertive phase in the country’s economic and foreign policy, says Helen ThomasJapanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to call a snap general election was a high-risk move. Just like investment theory would suggest, it has now delivered a high-reward outcome. Riding a wave of popularity that local media have dubbed sanakatsu (roughly translated as “Sanae mania”) Takaichi has secured a commanding victory, with her party and its coalition partner Ishin clinching a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house of the Diet.For investors, policymakers and Japan’s allies alike, the result is more than a routine electoral win. It potentially marks the start of a new, more assertive phase in Japanese economic and foreign policy that blends reflationary economics, fiscal activism and a hawkish security stance.Snap elections are always a roll of the dice. Call them too early and voters may see naked opportunism; call them too late and momentum can evaporate. Takaichi timed hers to capitalise on robust approval ratings and a fragmented opposition. Despite taking place in snowy wintry conditions for the first time in over 30 years, and with the shortest campaign period in post-war history, the strategy paid off handsomely.\n\nThe hastily assembled opposition bloc, the Centrist Reform Alliance, entered the race with hopes of consolidating anti-government votes. Instead, it emerged with its seat count roughly halved. Lacking a coherent message and struggling to match Takaichi’s media presence, the alliance failed to persuade voters that it was a credible alternative government.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFree Thinking - City AM Opinion Newsletter\nGet weekly sparky insight and expert commentary on markets, entrepreneurship and innovation from City AM’s Opinion Editor, delivered every Saturday.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe scale of the ruling coalition’s victory is significant. A two-thirds majority in the lower house gives the government the ability to override the upper house on legislation. Even if the government lacks a majority in the upper chamber, it can still push through bills rejected there. In practical terms, this removes a major legislative bottleneck and gives Takaichi unusual room to manoeuvre for a Japanese prime minister.That room to manoeuvre is likely to be used quickly. Takaichi has signalled a revival of the reflationary playbook associated with the Abenomics era. Markets are already focusing on the prospect of a temporary cut to the consumption tax, a pre-election campaign measure that earlier rattled the Japanese government bond (JGB) market and put pressure on the yen.With a strong mandate behind her, that tax cut now looks far more likely to materialise. The broader direction is clear: Japan is preparing to run its economy hotter. That implies tolerance for a weaker currency, higher nominal growth and, potentially, higher interest rates.\n\nFor years, Japan wrestled with deflationary psychology and anaemic demand. The new policy mix suggests a deliberate break from that mindset. The government appears willing to accept some market volatility in pursuit of sustained inflation and wage growth.Attention is now turning to the Bank of Japan. Monetary policy coordination, or more likely tension, will be crucial. A scheduled speech on Friday by BOJ board member Tamura, known for his relatively hawkish leanings, will be parsed closely for clues about how comfortable the central bank is with a more reflationary fiscal stance. If fiscal and monetary policy move in the same general direction, the shift in Japan’s macro regime could be significant.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}