CEE MARKETS-Weaker dollar pushes forint to multi-year high

Reuters
Feb 09
CEE MARKETS-Weaker dollar pushes forint to multi-year high

WARSAW, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The forint hit a fresh 26-month high on Monday and its Central Eastern European peers also gained as a weakening dollar boosted investor risk appetite for emerging market assets.

Hungarian forint EURHUF= firmed 0.2% against the euro to 377.15 by 0939 GMT, after hitting its strongest level since November 2023, at 377, in early trading.

"The dollar's weakness is helping the region, and the high interest rate is making the forint attractive, even if there will be a rate cut," a Budapest-based trader said, adding that there was very little activity in the market.

"Actually I think one rate cut is already priced in."

Hungary's statistics office is set to publish January consumer price inflation data on Thursday, with economists expecting a nearly one percentage point drop from December in annual terms.

The National Bank of Hungary monetary policy meeting is scheduled for late February.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= gained 0.1% to 4.2110 per euro, which analysts attributed to improved investor risk appetite, signalled by the weaker dollar.

"The zloty opened today's trading on a strong note," ING Bank Slaski analysts wrote in a note.

"Later in the week, we expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to move to 4.19, which is justified by the technical situation. In the second half of the week, investors' attention will shift towards domestic macroeconomic data."

Poland's statistics office is scheduled to release fourth quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday and a flash consumer price inflation estimate on Friday.

"However, we do not believe these publications will significantly impact the consensus regarding the March decision of the Monetary Policy Council $(MPC)$. The market unanimously assumes that the Council will resume interest rate cuts next month," the analysts added.

On the stocks front, Polish parcel locker firm InPost INPST.AS jumped 14% after a consortium led by FedEx FDX.N and InPost investors agreed to buy out InPost in a 7.8 billion euro ($9.2 billion) deal.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= eased 0.05% against the euro to 24.2270, pulling back slightly after it firmed to 24.2120, its strongest level since early January, in early trading.

The crown had gained over the past two sessions, rebounding from a seven-week low hit last week before a central bank meeting where some bet on a dovish tilt by policymakers.

While the bank discussed a rate cut at the meeting last Thursday, it held rates unchanged for a sixth meeting in a row, helping the crown recover some ground.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1039 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.2270

24.2150

-0.05%

-0.25%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

377.1500

378.0500

+0.24%

+1.91%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2110

4.2165

+0.13%

+0.11%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0928

5.0920

-0.02%

+0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2800

117.3800

+0.09%

+0.02%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2782.83

2759.4000

+0.85%

+3.62%

Budapest

.BUX

130383.39

130030.34

+0.27%

+17.43%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3418.06

3392.41

+0.76%

+7.35%

Bucharest

.BETI

27311.11

27247.30

+0.23%

+11.75%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4440

0.0940

+137bps

+9bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7810

0.0300

+136bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.4500

0.0320

+159bps

+2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

3.5170

-0.0940

+145bps

-10bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.3890

-0.0390

+196bps

-4bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.1070

-0.0030

+225bps

-1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.46

3.38

3.34

3.48

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.52

3.42

3.41

3.88

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Ros Russell)

((karl.badohal@thomsonreuters.com;))

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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