Relax everyone, the stock market will be fine this year according to the Super Bowl Indicator. But even for investors who don't believe the National Football Conference's Seattle Seahawks guaranteed gains this year with their victory, there are reasons to be positive heading into a crucial January jobs report.
First, there are signs of healthy rotation away from technology. Some might argue the Dow Jones Industrial Average is no more relevant to the wider market than the outcome of a football game. But the Dow surging to 50,000 on Friday is a reminder of the strengths of some of its constituent traditional blue-chip companies. Certainly that's the optimism on which President Donald Trump is seizing, posting over the weekend that he expects the Dow to double to 100,000 by the end of his term.
Second, it has been a strong earnings season. So far, 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive earnings surprise with a blended growth rate of 13%, according to FactSet. The average 8.8% revenue growth rate so far would be the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2022. Chip heavyweight Nvidia could add to the optimism when it reports toward the end of the month, benefiting from huge capital expenditure by major tech companies.
Third, the tech-sector bleeding might stop soon. Software stocks are close to being priced as if they were set for zero future growth, according to analysts at Jefferies, which should eventually provoke some bargain buying. Eyes will be on the January jobs report, due Wednesday because of a delay caused by the government shutdown. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a low 4.4%, but even a higher level could come with the silver lining of prompting the Federal Reserve to resume interest-rate cuts, boosting tech and other growth stocks.
The key for the Seahawks' win was a strong defensive showing. That at least could provide some inspiration for investors, even if they shouldn't put too much stock in the Super Bowl Indicator.
-- Adam Clark
***The market now views artificial intelligence as a disrupter, causing a massive rotation underneath the surface. Join Barron's senior managing editor Ben Levisohn, associate editor Al Root, and Barron's Investor Circle's Josh Schafer today at noon when they discuss what it means for stocks, sectors, and our favorite themes. Sign up here.
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***
Fresh Economic Data This Week: Jobs, CPI
This week brings two of the most-watched data releases in the same calendar week, a rare occurrence because of the brief government shutdown. First comes the January jobs report on Wednesday, then Friday's report on the consumer price index. A December retail sales report is also coming.
-- Economists expect Friday's jobs report to show employers added 70,000
nonfarm payrolls last month, up from December's 50,000 gain, though the
unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. This data was
supposed to arrive a week ago but for the shutdown.
-- Wall Street expects inflation to cool slightly, seeing top line CPI
rising 2.5% in January from a year earlier, down from December's 2.7%
rise. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is seen rising
2.5% from a year ago, which would be the smallest rise since March 2021.
-- U.S. retail and food services sales are expected to rise 0.4% in December
from the prior month, which is a couple of ticks lower than November's
rise. The National Federation of Independent Business' small business
optimism index is expected to rise to 99.8, from 99.5 previously.
-- The economic reports are coming as stock markets reached new heights,
with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging above 50,000 on Friday. The
Dow first finished above 40,000 in May 2024, making this latest level the
fastest climb between such milestones on record, Dow Jones Market Data
said.
What's Next: Another 75 S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, including Ford Motor on Tuesday, and McDonald's and T-Mobile US on Wednesday. So far, nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations and 70% of them have beaten on revenue.
-- Dan Lam and Janet H. Cho
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Super Bowl Marks Major Occasion for American Spending, Consumption
The past week and Sunday, leading up to Super Bowl LX, gave Americans a giant excuse to eat and drink. An estimated 213 million people tuned in to watch the match up between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots and the Bad Bunny halftime show.
-- The National Retail Federation estimated the viewing numbers, adding that
121.1 million people were planning parties and 18.2 million planned to
watch from bars or restaurants. Estimated spending adds up to $20.2
billion, or nearly $95 a person, on food, drinks, apparel, and other
stuff.
-- Total credit and debit card spending typically jumps 77% on NFL game days
in the zip codes around stadiums, mostly for food and drinks, Bank of
America analyst David Tinsley wrote. Consumer spending to attend
spectator sports has risen over 25% from 2019 to November 2025.
-- Anheuser Busch InBev bought 2.5 minutes of ads for Michelob Ultra,
Budweiser, and Bud Light. Other advertisers included PepsiCo's Pepsi Zero
Sugar, Lay's, and Poppi, Mondelez International's Ritz, and Unilever's
Hellman's. Some brands paid an estimated $10 million for 30 seconds.
-- Over the past 59 Super Bowls, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 10.2%
annually when an NFC team (this year, the Seattle Seahawks) wins, versus
a 8.1% average annual gain after an AFC victory, Carson Group chief
market strategist Ryan Detrick wrote.
What's Next: According to this Super Bowl stock market indicator, when the team wins by double digits, the S&P 500 has jumped by an average of 11% or higher 80% of the time, compared with a less than 7% gain after a single-digit win, Detrick wrote.
-- Evie Liu, Martin Baccardax, and Janet H. Cho
***
The Robot Revolution Is Getting Real at Tesla and Rivals
Like something from a galaxy far, far away, robots are getting closer to their big takeover. They featured prominently at the CES in January, and Wall Street is positively giddy. Even chip companies want to play a part, with Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel, and Advanced Micro Devices pitching their robotics solutions.
-- The current robot industry is dominated by Germany-based Kuka, which is
owned by China's Midea Group; Swiss-based ABB, which is selling the
business to SoftBank Group; and Japan's Fanuc and Yaskawa Electric. These
are mainly industrial robots, fixed to the ground and handling parts,
cutting metal, and welding, among other tasks.
-- A newer crop is designed to perform human tasks beyond the factory, using
AI models to "learn." They can pack boxes, sort parts for assembly, and
do household chores. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas believes robotics will
usher in the third Industrial Revolution, driving $25 trillion of
combined robot revenue by 2050.
-- But no robot is being truly mass-produced just yet, and costs are just
guesses. A NEO robot from 1X, meant for home use, can be reserved for
$20,000. Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes its Optimus robot will cost $20,000
to produce once it reaches a million units a year of sustained
production.
-- Even with peak robot decades away, automatons will be an increasingly
important part of a stock portfolio. Embodied AI will bolster trends that
are already in place -- the demand for AI chips, data connectivity,
increasing power production, and the U.S. manufacturing renaissance.
What's Next: Tesla is so enthusiastic about robots it's ending production of its Model S and X vehicles and converting that factory capacity into a robot production line. Chinese rival EV maker XPeng is also ramping up humanoid robot production. Citi estimates XPeng can deliver 1,000 units in the fourth quarter.
-- Al Root
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Telehealth Platform Hims & Hers Backs Down on Wegovy Knockoff
After picking a fight with Danish drug giant Novo Nordisk, the telehealth company Hims & Hers quickly backed off on Saturday, saying it wouldn't offer a knockoff version of Novo's wildly popular Wegovy weight loss drug after all. The standoff ended after heightened regulatory pressure from the Trump administration.
-- Hims planned to offer a pill version of the injectable Wegovy for a
steeply discounted price, though unlike Wegovy, the Hims product hadn't
been reviewed or approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Regulators
have warned about misleading advertising that implies a treatment has
similar effects as FDA-approved drugs.
-- Mike Stuart, general counsel for the Department of Health and Human
Services, said Friday that the agency had referred Hims to the Justice
Department for investigation of potential violations of the main U.S.
drug law enforced by the FDA. Stuart didn't explicitly name Hims' copycat
drug.
-- "Since launching the compounded semaglutide pill on our platform, we've
had constructive conversations with stakeholders across the industry,"
Hims told Barron's. "As a result, we have decided to stop offering access
to this treatment."
-- Hims & Hers has also drawn scrutiny for its Super Bowl ad, in which it
promotes a controversial early cancer detection test. Hims charges $689
for the test, including a blood draw and a prescription. It isn't
approved by the FDA, nor is it covered by Medicare and most health
insurance plans.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 09, 2026 07:04 ET (12:04 GMT)
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