By Damian Paletta

Good morning. Democrats likely need a double bank shot to take control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. They are now down three seats to the Republicans and would need to pick up four in November to account for Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaking power. The four most feasible pickups are North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine.

But, some new polls have Democrats' mouths watering over Texas. A new University of Houston poll suggests the Lone Star State could be close. Real close.

What's less certain: who the candidates will even be.

According to the new poll, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn on the Republican side 38% to 31%. Cornyn is a senior Republican in the Senate, but President Trump has so far refused to endorse him. The feud between Paxton and Cornyn has Democrats thinking the unthinkable.

On the Democratic side, according to the new poll, Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads state Rep. James Talarico 47% to 39%. But another recent poll had Talarico up by a similar margin over Crockett and Cornyn essentially tied with Paxton.

When the University of Houston pollsters put the different Democratic candidates against the different Republican candidates, the Republicans had the slimmest of leads.

Texas is where Democratic dreams often go to die (see O'Rourke, Beto), but this could be a fluky election year. It will likely hinge on who wins the primaries for both parties, what the state of the country is and how much money pours into the state. My prediction is that both parties will go all in ahead of the March 3 primary. And if it isn't decided then, a runoff would take place in May.

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People and Policies I'm Watching

Partial shutdown. Congress has until midnight Friday to reach a deal on funding for the Department of Homeland Security or there will be a partial government shutdown.

Trump's Tuesday: Trump is to participate in what the White House calls signing time at 4:30 p.m., hold a policy meeting at 5:30 p.m. and participate in a private dinner at 7 p.m.

What I'm Following

Ghislaine Maxwell pleaded the Fifth. The longtime associate of Jeffrey Epstein had been subpoenaed to testify Monday before the Republican-run House Oversight Committee, which is investigating the government's handling of the Epstein case. David Markus, one of Maxwell's lawyers, said Maxwell, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence, was ready to speak if granted clemency by Trump.

Trump guns for greenhouse-gas regulations. The administration is planning this week to repeal the Obama-era scientific finding that serves as the legal basis for federal greenhouse-gas regulation -- especially fuel-economy standards for vehicles. The 2009 finding concluded that six greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health and welfare.

A headline-grabbing immigration case fell apart. DHS couldn't prove that Turkish graduate student Rumeysa Ozturk, detained in March, needed to be deported, and an immigration court ended the proceedings against her on Jan. 29, her lawyers said. DHS had claimed that Ozturk, a Tufts graduate student, acted in support of Hamas, but her lawyers said she was detained in retaliation for a pro-Palestinian opinion piece she co-wrote.

What Else Is Happening

   -- Trump threatened to not allow the opening of a new bridge connecting 
      Canada with Detroit, which was paid for by Canada. 
 
   -- The Pentagon has warned defense contractors to brace for sweeping 
      performance reviews that will identify companies it says aren't 
      fulfilling their contracts. 
 
   -- A proposal by Trump to ban Wall Street investors from buying 
      single-family homes is running into Republican resistance in Congress. 
 
   -- Israel is deepening a push by far-right ministers to expand its authority 
      and settlements in the West Bank, giving it new powers in a territory 
      that would make up the heart of any future Palestinian state. 

What I'm Reading

   -- While America Was Watching the Super Bowl, Texas Republicans Were Having 
      an Online Meltdown. (Houston Chronicle) 
 
   -- Inside the Iranian Regime's Online 'Bot Army' Campaign Against Trump 
      State Department Official. (Washington Free Beacon) 
 
   -- Massie Calls for Lutnick's Resignation Over Epstein. (AL.com) 

About Me

I'm Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal's Washington coverage chief. I've covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor. I've covered the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics and multiple market meltdowns.

WSJ Politics brings you an expert guide to what's driving D.C., every weekday morning. Send your feedback to politics@wsj.com (if you're reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply). This edition was curated and edited in collaboration with Joe Haberstroh and Michael Connolly. Got a tip for us? Here's how to submit.

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February 10, 2026 06:58 ET (11:58 GMT)

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