比推消息， CryptoQuant 数据显示，比特币价格已跌破 50 日均线和 200 日均线，较大均线价差反映出此前上涨行情后的修正或“再定价”阶段。此外，CryptoQuant 的 Price Z-Score 目前为-1.6，表明比特币价格低于统计均值，通常意味着抛压增强及趋势动能减弱，历史上类似区间更常对应较长时间筑底，而非快速反弹。衍生品市场方面，加密分析师 Darkfost 指出卖方主导格局正在增强，数据显示上周日月度净主动成交量（Net Taker Volume）大幅转负至-2.72 亿美元，同时币安平台的主动买卖比跌破 1，显示市场卖压显著上升，目前期货成交量仍明显高于现货流入，市场需要更强的现货买盘才能触发反弹行情。
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